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The problem is I'm already in a S&P500-tracking ETF, for a decently large amount of money. Selling it off would be a big taxable event for me, something I don't want to do.

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Could you use a prediction market (or Spread Betting in the UK) to hedge against your ETF loosing money during the period? If the ETF lost value, the hedge would gain it back and vice versa. You wouldn't need to sell the ETF and you'd only be liable for tax on gains from the prediction.

Would you be taxed even if you put it straight into another fund? Genuine question.

Yes, because when you sell it, you get cash and profit. Profit is taxable, in Germany they tax it with 25% + Solidarity Tax + Church Tax (if you are a member of a church). After, you can go ahead and buy another fund, but in between you "shed" a significant amount of money.

Details depends on jurisdiction, of course.

In the US, you would likely also have to pay capital gains taxes for such a trade. (I think.)

In Singapore, in contrast, swapping between funds like this would not have any tax implications.

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