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Comment by bunderbunder | Hacker News Reader

I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.

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> when both seem instead to be stagnating

What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating?

The same evidence that they are growing. Tea leaves.

They’ve claimed a big revenue run rate for this quarter. But it’s non-GAAP, so you kind of have to assume shenanigans. Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public. I consider the number they came up with when they had to worry about committing perjury to be more trustworthy (because I’m a pill), so that would also indicate shenanigans. My guess is they are inflating that revenue run rate figure by booking token pre-payments from enterprise contracts now instead of spreading it over time as GAAP would mandate. And at the same time their big enterprise clients are talking about scaling back their usage.

So we’ve got a combination of signs that they’ve been inflating their revenue growth, and signs that their customers are losing their appetite for contributing to that revenue growth. I suppose it’s not a slam dunk, but it feels to me like as strong an indicator as one could hope for a private blitzscaler startup like this.

Oh, to be clear, I'm not saying there is evidence they're all a-okay. I just hadn't seen any evidence that they were stalling out. (I have for OpenAI.)

  Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public.

Got a source?

"Although the company has generated substantial revenue since entering the commercial market—exceeding $5 billion to date—it has nonetheless had to raise more than $60 billion in outside capital to fund its operations".

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.46...

That doesn't prove this qouote:

  Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public.

No new models. Same janky slop but with a bunch of RL and benchmark cheating. A pretend future model which is just the current model but with a longer COT and gated away.

If you thought your company was going to develop AGI you wouldn’t sell a single share. You’d be a fool. It’s like selling your straight flush.

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