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Anecdotally it seems like anywhere I’d hop to pays about the same unless I can get to the next tier up. If you want to move up a level they expect you to have at least 3-5 years already being at that level so the only way forward is to get promoted and THEN hop.

There are too many "it depends" to make any statement. The economy isn't running hot now, and that means those who are forced to job hop (laid off) provide enough potential hires that companies don't need to try to pay someone more to leave.

The real question is will this change? Will companies start valuing long term employees thus making it not worthwhile to leave? Only time will tell (I wouldn't bet on it though).

Anecdotally it's true imho. accrual of benefits, sbc and wage-indexing, ... job hopping puts you at the ground floor of each, and salary jumps have narrowed.

Job hopping makes sense if you are skilled in AI.