Overall I agree with this, though I do think that there will be a trend to hoard/keep-secret domain knowledge by professions. Like plumbers will try and make it a trade-secret or protected intellectual property how to change a pipe fitting.
For new construction and commercial work the moat is a contractor's license. They don't allow LLMs to take the licensing exam yet.
"don't want to buy tools, and don't want to get shit on their hands"
Thats closer to the truth. The rest of your post is fluff. Its pure economics, not rocket science.
You can read all the plumbing books, but you need to get your hands dirty a few times, mess it up and fix it, to get mentally comfortable and efficient with the work