What is even more alarming is that more than half of the Japanese public supports the Takaichi administration, which is implementing such absurd policies.
What is even more alarming is that more than half of the Japanese public supports the Takaichi administration, which is implementing such absurd policies.
Everything I can find says the shortages now are due to the Iran war.
Not exactly. Japan only produces around 40% of it's naphtha domestically, with 40% from the Middle East and the other 20% from other sources. Much of the pain arose from supply shock for the 40% sources from the ME.
That said, much of the pain around naphata is transitional, as most Japanese imports of naphtha have now shifted away from the Middle East to Algeria, the US, and India [0][1].
Mind you, this is eating significantly into margins, but it is survivable as this isn't Japan's first black swan event of similar calibre - the late 2000s and early 2010s oil price shock occurred during a much more difficult macro environment for Japan, and at least according to ONG analysts [2] (behind login, as most actionable commodities news is) Japan has the reserves needed for around a year of production assuming Japan didn't begin shifting sourcing, which it did.
I'd recommend reading Overseas Energy Investment of Korea and Japan: How did Two East Asian Resources-Rare Industrial Giants Respond to Energy Security Challenges by Oh Seong-ik [3] to learn more about the Korean and Japanese energy security policy - both are using the same methodology, strategies, and contract structures, and despite public rhetoric, a large portion of younger Koreans targeting the Blue House and/or high finance still try to attend Waseda for their undergrad if SKY, KAIST, or Ewha doesn't work out.
[0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/jap...
[1] - https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-marke...
[2] - https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/280064...
[3] - https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-0285-9
The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War led to a temporary shock like this as did the Iraqi Civil War and the subsequent surge in the late 2000s and early 2010s.
Life is filled with black swans and it truly sucks at the individual level, but at the macro-level this is transitionary.
Also, for the Japanese government, the housing pain is less worrisome than it's downstream impact on cracking.
What does cracking mean in this context?
Do you have a citation for this? This sounds insane. I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified.
The title reads "PM's Office calls Calbee's response a "stunt"; Emphasizes naphtha sufficiency, including intermediate products".
Asahi Shinbun is one of the established newspapers.
Also at the end (translated by google):
> "The government interviewed Calbee about the situation on the 12th. According to a government official, they explained to Calbee that there is a sufficient amount available in terms of total volume. Sources close to the Prime Minister expressed concern over the ripple effects, stating, "Calbee's reaction is an overreaction. Their announcement will cause other companies to become anxious as well." However, Calbee maintains its stance, with a public relations representative stating, "This is a measure to ensure the stable supply of our products."
So it's relatively mild "nudge", if you compare it to the current US administration.
Yes
In half a year, maybe, but I and many I talk to are skeptical their huge scale supply chain is running out of printing material in such a short amount of time. I'm voting with my yen by not buying Calbee products for now.
This all started in the White House and we must never let them get away with it.
We don't but we worry about similar issues caused by the same root cause.