SpaceX founder Elon Musk wants to start a Mars colony
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But the key problem then becomes: why would people want to spend $0.5m to deal with all the inconveniences of being a first settler on Mars? It takes months to go there, and once you're there you'll be stuck in cramped quarters with only basic amenities. Plus the health risks of radiation and equipment failure.
So people need to be compensated for these inconveniences and risks with a salary greater than they could make on Earth. This means that you need a functioning Martian economy. People won't go en masse without it making economic sense for them to do so. But in order for that to develop, the colony needs to produce something of value.
To draw an analogy to the European settlement of North America, the first permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like furs and minerals back to Europe. In this way, the North American economy was bootstrapped off of the European economy.
The same thing needs to happen here where we need to bootstrap a Martian economy off of the Earth economy by exporting resources back to Earth.
If those two things were not true, I would be heading for mars in a second, inconveniences be damned.
If he can build it, people will come.
If this becomes a reality, banks would come out of the woodworks willing to provide the necessary financing -- at significant interest rates, of course. But that would open up the pool of candidates quite a bit beyond just those who have $500k in assets.
Sarcasm aside, this actually sounds quite possible, and all other things being equal, I might even be interested.
Funny creatures, those humans
That, or fugitives (either criminal or religious). I don't see a religious group on Earth yet who wants to flee to Mars. The Raelians perhaps ;-)
I'd say that Elon truly excels at coming up with creative ways to overcome barriers... and those barriers aren't always engineering related.
But I can see that happening later on, in an effort to get "normal" people moving there.
After that, OTHER PEOPLE will find ways to monetize. People went to America because it was an untouched land of opportunity, not because somebody told them they could export furs. It was clear that there was opportunity but unclear what it might be.
I can think of many things that could make your rich on Mars. Any kind of sports/competitions in reduced gravity, space hotels/amenities (things that makes space more like home) and indeed mining of raw materials. And these are just the first things that come to mind. There's probably better ideas.
As Spider Robinson has written to similar questions, some folks have another column in their life ledger, labelled 'satisfaction'. You can't see it, so their behavior seems irrational.
Furthermore, its not clear that money on Earth will have any meaning on Mars. You can't take it with you, in a way. To go to Mars at all, requires a sacrifice of your entire life on Earth, in exchange for a chance at a new life.
I would do this, sacrificing all I have on Earth, for the chance to do something really important.
I like that. Is that a Spider Robinson quote? Couldn't find it.
"How could he show a profit?"
'By creating a category in his
book-keeping called 'Satisfaction,'…
Motivation was land ownership, and presumably a colony would make some rules about letting you own a chunk of Mars. Perhaps you could become a water farmer.
Paul Graham said: “Live in the future, and then build what's missing.” Probably Elon Mask is trying to apply this rule. Well, at least I don’t get it.
Making a future for mankind - that's a very cool game. I'd go in a heartbeat, and I'm doing fine in America (more than fine - been a startup founder many times, money in the bank).
I think there are many much better ways to make a future for mankind. Just look at the children in Africa. Technology innovations can do a lot on earth.
Of course I'd not go if it was suicide. But technology can overcome lots of hurdles. Colonists in the past had the same decision to make, and here we are in America to prove it.
I just know that every photograph I see of Mars landscape, I feel a rush, I want to run to that far horizon and see what's there.
Before getting the town of 80,000 to a living status, thousands and thousands will fight to survive and will die immaturely. Of course, this brings happiness to those who helped to settle 80000 on Mars. They will enjoy on Earth.
Just because you are fighting for survival doesn't mean you can't be happy doing it.
I think that attempting to relate this to previous colonization efforts on this planet is flawed. The motivation of the "colonists" would be completely different.
The fact is there are people who would go, it doesn't really matter to them if you understand their motivation.
Here is a rephrasing of a quote of Meher Baba (a respected spiritual master): What will man find on mars? nothing but himself. (He said it about the moon)
I am genuinely curious to know the opinion of the HN crowd about the fundamental disagreement between these two visions?
The answer to "why?" is just as easily given: "why not?" No more need be justified.
>Because both scientists and mystics seek to acquire knowledge, although the path undertaken is of a significantly different nature.
One has a testable process that can be shared with other people, the other doesn't. You can call your search for truth whatever you like, but the process makes all the difference. Alchemists sought truth, etc, etc.
>"What will man find on mars? nothing but himself."
So what? How should that at all influence whether it happens or not? It is like saying "Wherever you go, that is where you are". True, but unhelpful. You can use it to justify or not justify undertaking whatever action, depending on how you choose to interpret it at the time. "Finding myself" (on whatever level you choose to define 'Find' and 'myself') on Mars sounds awesome, not disappointing.
I suspect Mars will be only for those with a total net worth of at least 500k (selling all of your Earth assets to get there probably makes sense).
"The highest atmospheric density on Mars is equal to the density found 35 km above the Earth's surface." source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars#Atmosphere
More interesting reading here:
I suspect he probably doesn't spend to much time thinking about what would be cool if other people did something. He may consider it idly once in a while, but I would be surprised if he considers it seriously while also not involving himself in it.
Obviously you'd have to ask him though.
The funny thing is that colonization of Mars is not something that will happen without the latter group. There is currently no economic sense in going there, which bars it from happening on its own.
The good thing about this is that any future rocket or spacecrafts that would use at least some of the ideas in that design, would be forced to open source everything else. So in a way, he could create something like the Linux kernel of the space world, and we could see a lot of innovation coming out of that, all of which would have to be turned back into open source, and help future, greater innovations appear even faster.
http://www.copenhagensuborbitals.com/ Copenhagen Suborbitals are probably the closest to actually having an open source spacecraft. They do have this on their website; "We intend to share all our techninal information as much as possible, within the laws of EU-export control."
I think everyone who would consider going understands the risks.