On any sufficiently large and old app, something will always break in a way that isn't caught by your tests or manual testing, and only shows up after it goes out live.
While it is deprecated, you can do a File=>New Project for Web Forms in 2026.
In Rails my tests are mostly to ensure that a request to a controller returns the expected response and the expected changes in the database. Unit tests are often on validations and the errors they return for invalid data. Then there are functional tests that drive a headless browser.
Not fun in production.
Dynamic languages with optional typing like BASIC or Common Lisp is another matter.
I have taken applications from 2-to-3, 3-to-4, and so on, through 8.X.
If anything it has gotten better/easier over time. The most challenging upgrades were 2.X to 3.X (for reasons I can't recall), and then 6.X to 7.X (for an application that had issues adopting zeitwerk). In both of those situations, there was a lot of rote legwork, but once tests were passing, the application was working reliably. The other upgrades (3-to-4, 4-to-5, 5-to-6, 7-to-8) weren't happy-fun-rainbows-and-unicorns, but they weren't catastrophically complicated? Not even in fairly large codebases.
For each of these, a strong test suite was the best tool, which it sounds like you already know?
In my experience, the other impactful factors were:
(1) Reading the CHANGELOGs and knowing enough about Rails to know what they meant for the application.
(2) Using test fixtures (or fixtures with only some factories) for a quicker feedback loop for engineers.
(3) Having a true QA function in the company that isn't just engineers testing their own code.
Many big structural changes, IIRC bundler integration, plugins became engines, etc...
It was the big Rails+MERB merge.
I have my criticisms of Rails, but that definitely set it on a better path.