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Comment by ifdefdebug | Hacker News Reader

well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is where the damage lies.

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the entire point of the argument is that they're the same people. Military bets appear to have significantly higher rates of insider trading than baseline[1], which implies two things, both catastrophic. One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone) but the even worse scenario is causality in the other direction, that a bet leads someone to take a military decision.

[1]https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/30/polymarket-s-mil...

> One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone)

It's not at all obvious that leaks of classified information are per se detrimental to _actual_ national security.

It's not because specifically with these markets there is an amplification effect where the one doing the bet creates incentives for what it's betting in favor or against to materialize in the world.

In other words the money spent on bets that involve killing directly foments more killing.

Military insiders can also buy oil futures...

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