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Comment by throwawaypath | Hacker News Reader

Polymarket is a casino. A roulette wheel is not a "market". You can't beat the house.

There is no house? Betting is against other players

The service is the house, and they take fees on bets, so they are the only ones guaranteed to win.

By that logic market makers in the stock market are basically like a casino too. No one is of course guaranteed to win in anything but at least the stock market doesn't ban you for making too much money like a casino does.

I mean, yeah, pretty much.

I can actually consistently make money in the stock market, not so in a casino.

There is an entire profession of Poker players that consistently make money in casinos but not from casinos. You simply don't understand how this all works.

Difference is average people can make money in the stock market on a consistent basis, while even the best poker players still get banned.

Meanwhile a lot of people don't make consistent money on the stock market.

If it was "that simple" everyone would be making money on the stock market, but its not.

It is that simple, invest in broad market index funds.

I think we're running into the limitations of the English language. Things don't always neatly fit into categories. The stock market can be a casino, depending on how you interact with it.

If you regularly trade and constantly watch your stocks, then it's a casino.

If you buy some index funds and never look at them again until 10 years later, it's not a casino.

There's no clear delineation between an investment and a bet; it's a Venn diagram with a huge overlap. I don't think that means that there is any question about where on the Venn diagram sites like Kalshi and Polymarket belong.

The casinos won't ban you if you take too much from other players. They ban you because you take to much from the casino itself.

If you somehow caused some exchange to consistently lose money, I'm sure they'd cut you off.

You're not betting against "other players," your betting against institutional players that have an edge... A house edge, like a casino.

There is a house and the house takes a rake just like a poker room. And a poker room is clearly not a securities exchange.

You are betting against insiders, or rather giving money to insiders...

Ok, who are insiders for these bets:

* What price will Bitcoin hit in May?

* SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

* Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 26?

* Presidential Election Winner 2028

> What price will Bitcoin hit in May?

Quick reminder that POTUS has power to strongly influence Bitcoin price [1]

> SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Quick reminder that SpaceX gets most of its money from the US government [2]

To say nothing of oil and other commodities affected by war [3]

In short, an insider is literally anyone who knows what the president is going to say tomorrow.

[1] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/20/five-times-presi...

[2] https://spacenews.com/spacex-wins-2-29-billion-space-force-c...

[3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/betting-on-iran-war-insider-tra...

1) Anyone at a company trading in bitcoin.

2) SpaceX employee or board member.

3) Anyone with a blow drier that knows which weather monitoring station is used.

4) Campaign insider that can sabotage their candidate's chances of winning.

You are absolutely clueless.

That's not the definition of a casino. If it were, Poker wouldn't be played in casinos.

You're not betting against "other players," your betting against institutional players that have an edge... A house edge, like a casino.

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