There's no materials science breakthrough needed -- the shuttle used ceramic tiles successfully its entire service life. What's needed is engineering work, and that's what SpaceX has been doing.
We’ve seen much larger holes than that in previous tests. Some of the control fins burned completely through.
"Oh, they'll need to do it 10x to be profitable!"
Now they do, as a matter of course.
Being a cynical naysay isn’t hard.
The quarter thing may have been true for the space shuttle, that doesn't make it true in general.
Here is a decent summary.
Airlines used to use a hub and spoke model where it would make sense to have larger planes between hubs and smaller ones to get to and from the hubs, but consumers strongly preferred direct routing, so it didn't work out. For orbital payloads, most payloads probably do not mind too much if it takes a month or more to boost/deboost themselves to their intended orbits.
If a jumbo jet was ten times more efficient than a smaller plane, they would go everywhere. If a giant pickup truck got a 100MPG, why would you take a 30MPG economy sedan anywhere?
Due to strucrually efficiency, larger ones suceede where smaller fail due to higher m0/mf ratio