Predicting the 2026 Bristol Bay and Kodiak Salmon Runs

That first summer I studied historical escapement values to try to predict where to fish. I found almost zero correlation when targeting areas in Kodiak based on historical values, but I’m sure with better data and more experience there’s real alpha to be unlocked. Would be fun to model for some with more stat experience than me.

The more interesting problem to me was trying to understand how the pricing actually worked. Global macro events felt almost completely disconnected from what fishermen were paid, especially with the opaque October price adjustments from the canneries.

There were a lot of structural advantages for the corporations in that business. I came away thinking that vertically integrated processing, distribution, and retail was a much smarter place to be than catching the fish itself.