> space compute
Heard anybody remotely competent about space talk the topic? It's pretty much a literal laugh every time.
Heard anybody remotely competent about space talk the topic? It's pretty much a literal laugh every time.
Out-of-regulatory-reach is what they'll actually be selling. It can be on earth, it just has to be sufficiently hidden such that you can claim that it's in space.
That conversation goes like this:
US: Stop doing that thing with your data center
X: It's in space, you can't tell us what to do
US: Yes we can
X: <Say OK> or <Go to jail>
The power budget of a starlink v2 mini satellite is estimated at around 20kW based on the known solar panel size. That also matches what a satellite of that size would roughly dissipate without dedicated radiators, using just some heat pipes to spread the heat evenly over the satellite's surface. There is nothing fundamentally preventing you from taking the same satellite design, remove most of the comms payload and instead put 15kW of GPUs there. Or about 10 GB200 including the CPUs, networking, etc that you need along with the GPUs
Now, do the economics work out for $300k worth of compute for each satellite, in an environment where maintenance is impossible and degradation will be higher than on the ground? Probably not right now, but in a couple years they might
You’re making some decent points here, but you’re either forgetting or ignoring the major thing that people usually neglect to mention when they want to make a case for this (crazy) idea — weight. Unless SpaceX is going to completely redesign hardware such that it is optimized entirely for its mass, it requires many (many) launches to even get a small set of racks into space. I don’t normally get up in arms about the CO2 emissions of data centers, I think there is offsetting value created by their use, but I would absolutely protest trying to put data centers in space and do my best to shut down the hundreds, if not thousands of launches it would take to achieve even a tiny fraction of an AI data center.
Furthermore, xAI's colossus supercomputer is specced at 250MW. And this seems to be a number that'll just increase over the coming years with new bigger DCs.
To match this level of performance they will have to launch what, ~15k satellites _per_ equivalent datacentre?
Regarding cooling: you can't just cover the outer surface with pipes. You cant't dissipate the heat, you need to _radiate_ it away. You need to point that surface to the deep dark cold of space. If you point it to the sun, you will heat your satellite. Think a massive "reverse solar panel" that works with infrared. You need surface area, and loads of it.
I'm not saying this is impossible. Obviously elon will prove us all wrong because he's stubborn like that. But there is no way this will ever be economically viable when competing with terrestrial based systems.
The actual Starlink V2 Mini is has estimates for solar generation that range up to 35kW. We need a bit more, but not much more.
My numbers are a bit optimistic, but they are in the right order of magnitude. Power and cooling are very achievable in the area of putting one server on one satellite. It's the "putting one DC on one mega satellite" ideas that run into feasability issues, and for inference those aren't needed. The economics are the bigger issue, and launch costs are only moving in one direction
I'm pretty sure we'll see this within the next 5 years.
But deploying a megawatt scale DC in space? And then doing that multiple times a year?? I can't see how this is the only solution to this problem. I can't see how that will be the de-facto way of deploying DCs. Not for the next 100 years or more.
Even then, space is still a harder place to put a satellite than any rural area on the planet.
The fact that elon's colossus data centre needs to burn jet fuel on site for power tells you everything you need to know about the viability of a solar powered space based solution.
And that’s before you get past the cost of actually putting the shit up there instead of just driving or shipping by rail.
It’s just more looney tunes delusion from a guy who is just talking out his ass about shit he thinks is cool, like the cyber truck was.
I think compute in space suffers less from being "impossible" and more from being "impractical". It is plenty easy to put compute in space. It is just still silly expensive and by the time your equipment makes up the cost of putting it in space, it will be well out of date.