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Comment by TheAlchemist | Hacker News Reader

Finally ! Can we end the debate about how mind blowingly profitable this company is ?

Mind you, those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden - which will run into tens of billions per year.

I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up.

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>those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden

Clearly untrue. Given that's the source of the reported steep losses

How so ? xAI / Twitter were merged in this year - they don't show up anywhere in the financials.

They definitely show up.

You don't even have to read the document yourself.

Plenty of people are summarising it themselves and using AI.

The loss from Xai is over 7B

Maybe I'm missing something, but where do they show up in the financial results ?

They are yet to start paying this debt no ?

There are critical videos on this matter.

The debt is on the balance sheet and even the VC investments are listed so you can figure out how much they have to make to be on the whole profitable (as opposed to operationally)

> I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up.

Be careful what you wish for. The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

So be it. What's the alternative ? Continue a bubble ? Ride on the 'FSD by the end of the year' or 'thousands of Optimus next year' for the next 10 years ?

The guys is openly lying and clearly a drug addict at this point and people think he's not cooking the books ?

Musk empire will end up being a much bigger scandal than Enron ever was. It's just a matter of time until it unfolds.

SpaceX and Tesla are different companies, fyi.

I know. They are very closely collaborating and are part of the same 'empire'. They will also go down together.

They are not closely collaborating. They share essentially nothing beyond Musk.

Did you actually read the S-1 ?

Tesla is mentionned 87 times. And even they explicitly state that they have strategic collaboration. They supposedly biggest projects are developped together (Macrohard, Terafab - all fugazzi, but still).

Related party transactions are close to a $1 Billion in 2025.

xAI perhaps. But that wasn’t even a part of spacex last year and the company existed just fine.

The idea that 100s of global pension funds don't do their due diligence when investing 100s of millions or billions of their members' future retirement funds is extremely naive. With sincerity, I hope you can find a way not to be so emotional about what Musk says and be more grounded in what his companies and their employees are doing.

Have you ever heard of a Mortgage Backed Security?

or Bespoke Tranche Opportunity, they don't say CDO any more. I mean, it's the same thing, but still.

Investing in SpaceX is one thing. Investing in SpaceX that is now merged with several other failed companies that each incur massive yearly additional losses.... let's see how long those funds still hold SpaceX.

Isn't xAI profitable after leasing out its DCs to Anthropic?

>The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

Nah.

Nothing critical is running on top of any of SpaceXAI's offerings.

NASA mostly runs on SpaceX, so it depends if you consider ISS to be critical. But I wouldn't say it would be mind boggling.

Cool, nationalise SpaceX, reintegrate its costs into NASA, done.

The US would never let its access to space be cut off.

Watch lmao.

The US actually did just that when it retired the shuttle program. We had to rely on Russia to get to the space station.

Arguably Ukraine is still alive because of StarLink.

Granted, Russia is trying hard to make every mistake in the book, but StarLink’s benefits for UA and cutting off RU units from StarLink was very advantageous this year.

For those who don’t know, for a ~$400 terminal, UA can C&C a medium-long range drone/ plane or cruise missile which has low latency, massive global coverage, and which is resilient against EM jamming (apparently the terminal handoffs from one satellite to another make it ideal for resisting an enemy’s jamming efforts). Also the obvious: it maintains MUCH better resilient comms between front lines and HQ (RU depended on this, but they were cut off a few months ago, causing coordination chaos).

There is discussion that if Taiwan gets a similar deal to Ukraine for StarLink access, it makes the porcupine strategy much more viable.

Conversely, any country which can’t get access to it loses a massive tool in the tool chest.

And sadly, it means that if the US continues to be fickle with allies, those allies may not be able to rely on such a valuable tool.

Spacex is not too big to fail.

Yes but only if its added before the index funds. Let's just hope that the nasdaq and the other markets just don't take spacex (Nasdaq is literally bending its rules to accodomate SpaceX)

The worst thing is that we don't even have a say in all of this and chances are most likely that its gonna IPO and get listed on the index funds soon and once it gets into Index funds, a lot of collateral damage might happen.

I must say that I am not quite optimistic about there not existing collateral damage, there is happening a lot of corruption within financial markets in general with bending laws. The worst part is that we all would/might be the most impacted by it all

Total market cap of NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is $40 trillion, SpaceX joining that and immediately going to zero would be a 5% drop, big but not the worst we've seen.

I think if SpaceX were to drop dramatically it may spook the market and lead to a lot of the NASDAQ 100 pulling back.

If SpaceX joins and goes to zero, that is firstly a 2 Trillion dollar wipeout and the whole market would absolutely go completely crazy and the market would be so spooked as @etempleton suggests that instead of it being a 5% drop, it would be more like 50% (don't quote me on it) but still, the markets would absolutely drop substantially more than 5% & it might erode the trust within financial markets altogether for many people too because of such massive wipeouts of funds.

Why do you think it would go to zero?

Would you be willing stake some money on your claim and short the stock?

Bruh. This is unhinged.

SpaceX is a good company with a ton of potential future revenue on their data center and Starlink businesses. Nothing about this company is fugazzi.

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