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Comment by Aboutplants | Hacker News Reader

The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX

Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much laying around for them all to gobble up the bag?

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It depends at least partially on how much they're going to float. I think SpaceX is only planning about a 4% float, so even at $1.5T they only need around $60B. Which is a drop in the bucket.

EDIT - but that's just the IPO, I wasn't even thinking about how much insiders will want to sell after the lockup ends...

Is 100+ FPE the new normal?

Must be retail investors believing: big number == good.

The valuation just needs to be high enough to get into an index, then the 401K plans start buying the shares automatically.

I think one of them is not like the other.

I would invest in OpenAI or Anthropic or both but I doubt I'd invest in SpaceX.

Isn't SpaceX the only one of those that actually makes money?

Personally, I don't worry about profitability in the short term. If Anthropic is adding $15b ARR every single month, and their gross margins are 50%+ (per Dario), profits are inevitable.

The thing I'm most worried about with SpaceX is bundling X.com, xAI with it. I don't want to invest in X.com nor xAI.

Lastly, I don't my money tied to the Elon rollercoaster.

Can't wait to see where they stick the cost frontier model updates in the P&L. Maybe some kind of NRE they can amortize so it's outside of EBITDA?

I understand very little of this, but hasn't OpenAI burned so much money, which it now need to be recouped, making any profit short or long term is mostly a fantasy.

If OpenAI IPOs, then investors will expect a return. OpenAI can't generate that, so they'll be forced to slash R&D, stop datacenter roll outs and layoffs, so what's left? A model that will grow stale in six month, massive commitments and debt?

How are the margins 50%+?

There's an article from today where if they double their current revenue to $10.9B they will make ~$500M profit. Maybe I just can't count, but that's a margin of ~5% no?

These numbers should be inference only: https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart...

gross margin doesnt include opex, capex, overhead etc

On second thought, is this the reason anthropic is making these gigantic deals (1.2T to xAI, 200B to Google, >100B to AWS, 30B to Azure)? Is it just so that they can claim this is an amortized cost rather than a monthly reccuring operating cost?

seems unlikely as it owns twitter and grok, both being giant money sinks

SpaceX is a money furnace. Read the S-1 that came out yesterday.

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