Hacker News Reader

Comment by tdeck | Hacker News Reader

> But why so anti AI specfically?

Because society is structured so that every time some labor-saving innovation comes along, it's used as a tool to drive down wages and reduce workers' bargaining power. And they leaders of these industries aren't exactly hiding it.

You might be able to game it in the short term, but It's not like anyone is seriously thinking this will reduce the totality of our efforts in the long term. Employers are already champing at the bit to reduce headcount and increase output targets.

The only hope these people have to offer in their bleak future is that if you play your cards right, you might be one of the few crabs to climb over the other crabs and escape the bucket before it's dumped into the kettle. It's giving "we need one person from each department to stay on and train the India team after the layoffs" vibes.

View on HN

Yep. In theory, labor saving innovation (or handing jobs off overseas) should be a joyous occasional all. It could be a joyous occasion for all. But we have structured it so that, the moment it happens, 200% of the benefits go to capital and -100% go to labor -- and the consolation prize for labor is that maybe some of the 200% will trickle down into a different job later, or willingness to spend on overpriced haircuts, or something.

There's an argument to be made that this is a necessary component of an economy that can reinvent itself. Maybe. But even if we accept this convenient and self-serving and suspicious premise, there can then be no concession on the point that structuring it this way creates an obligation on the part of the person receiving 200% to "spread it around" and that attempts to dodge this obligation are morally repugnant, socially unacceptable, and ought to be met with harsh political backpressure.

For the last while, that hasn't been the thinking. Instead we have gone for "blame mexicans and let's see if we can't make it 300%!" The response of the kids gives me hope that people might be coming back to their senses on the matter.

I agree, this is a reason to boo the (tech) elites. But they seem to boo genAI specifically, right? I'd understand it if they'd just started booing right from the first word.

There's an argument to be made that this is just part of a repeating cycle of history. Powerful people have always, will always, and are currently using their power to make themselves more powerful - no matter whether the power takes the form of nobility titles, currency, or company directorships. History consists of a continuous gradual increase in "top 1% wealth" punctuated by sharp decreases.

Somehow, wages tend to go up, though:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Nice try, now use a deflator that doesn't systematically understate housing and forced substitution.

A national average (which is what an inflation rate is) can only do so much. It's going to include people who spend very different amounts on housing, probably not much like the situation where you live.

No, the "averages smear out details" problem is completely separate to the core accusation I made and much less interesting. My accusation -- which you completely failed to address -- is that CPI systematically fails to account for forced substitution, introducing a systematic downwards bias that forces "real" incomes to rise over the long term as a direct result of the solvency constraint on individuals rather than improved access to goods and services in the economy.

I'm not sure what you mean by forced substitution.

Rent goes up more than pay. Solvency = the belt must tighten. You decide to eat chicken instead of beef because it isn't inflating as fast and it's good enough. The basket adjusts to model your "preference change." Inflation went down! Your real income went up! Wow amazing!

In the short term, basket adjustments are lagged and modest in impact, but in the long term they are everything. CPI is a good model of consumer price inflation vs last year but a terrible model when compounded. This is before going down the chained CPI and hedonic adjustment tangents, which both reliably adjust CPI in the wrong direction. Funny how all the dubious methodology points in one direction, that of understating inflation.

Worse, the very focus on consumer prices itself is highly misleading. Assets and liabilities matter in an economy that has a middle class and isn't just hand-to-mouth serfs. When assets inflate and paychecks don't and the response is dissaving and debt, that's a problem too. The American Dream isn't to Owner's Imputed Rent a house.

Innovation can make specific skills obsolete; but only if the output of the process actually gets cheaper or better...

It results in the output becoming available to people at a lower price point.

It's not some artificial social system like unions guilds or cartels, it's a tangible thing that actually produces more output with less (or different) workers.

If the tech CEO dream that they are selling that LLMs replace all white collar work within a few years who is going to have money to buy anything at the lower price point?

Anyone who can still find any way to exchange their time for currency...

Unless you believe that we are actually close to making humans generally obsolete.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com