I think the big 3 are cartelizing and starting to ratchet up costs. GPT5.5 is not easily distinguishable from 5.1. I would it be shocked if we hit the ceiling and everyone is quietly positioning for the exit.
I don't understand why everyone thinks there is a ceiling below human-level intelligence, when we have an existence proof that human-level intelligence is possible.
for LLMs as implemented today?
This is very napkin math, but the human brain has about 100 trillion parameters. Even the biggest models today top out at 10 trillion parameters. I think it's reasonable to assume that models need to be at least an order of magnitude bigger to capture the complexity of human intelligence, and probably a lot more.