What you're not to accept/acknowledge is this type of reasoning:
The US used to be power level 9000 [for several decades, in the past going back to the 1940s or before]
Now the us is power level 7000
China is currently power level 5000
The statement "The US is weaker than it ever has been [ed. in the lifetime of any current decision maker and relevant to current geopolitical decisions]" is true.
The fact that it's still stronger than China is also true.
It's absurd to pretend you don't understand this.
> Yea, now imagine Iran quadruples its drone and missile stockpile and then closes the Strait and then proceeds with accelerating development of nuclear weapons. I'm not sure why folks seem to lack the capacity to project future actions
What evidence is there that Iran would have shut down the strait at all? The only time they've done so in the last 40+ years is in response to a direct, unnecessary attack.
What evidence is there that Iran would behave differently than any other nation with nuclear weapons - that is use them as a deterrent to prevent pointless meddling by other countries prone to an unnecessary attack?
It seems like what you call a "lack [of] capacity to project future actions" might just be people wanting to avoid wild speculation.