>The market is going to struggle to absorb
It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.
It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.
It's time for Google/Elon/Softbank/sovereign wealth funds, etc to cash out.
For you, it's time to tilt to bond and value.
While by "the end of May 2024, passive mutual funds and ETF assets" had "grown to nearly 60% of the equity fund market" (emphasis mine) [1], only about a third of American stocks are held by passive capital [2]. (Index funds are about 16%.)
> For you, it's time to tilt to bond and value
Or just buy the market and watch the show.
[1] https://www.americancentury.com/institutional-investors/insi...
Do you know anything about the state of bond markets?
The primary mechanism behind that is liquidity; Passively held assets decrease liquidity, and with there being a lot of passively held assets, liquidity isn't so great.
There are some warning signs that demand for AI companies, especially OpenAI, may not be so high as expected. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-01/openai-de... (Though OpenAI asserts that the demand is low because the seller isn't trusted)
On the other hand, it also seems like OpenAI and Anthropic are seeking to have a relatively "small" IPO by not selling too many shares. The market may absorb a few tens of billions. The big questio is how long it'll take for more of those companies to hit the market afterwards; They're burning through their money awfully quickly, and the earlier investors will want out as well.
Public markets are a different animal all together.
There are some concerned there won’t be enough willing to invest. That is a real risk given people smell a bubble about to pop.
The other ironic risk is if the float is too small it creates an artificially high valuation by letting a thin, momentum-driven market price 100% of the cap table, which then collapses when lockups expire, supply floods in, and the real market discovers the stock is worth far less than the marginal buyers said it was.
For example there’s talk that in that scenario SpaceX could end up with a 5T valuation… for a company that did only $18.5B in revenue last year. Thats beyond irrational even under the most aggressive growth scenarios.
I say this as a former public-equity derivatives guy, and now a private capital markets guy: I'm not seeing this seriously argued.
There is a real risk these companies are going out overvalued. But they're already overvalued in the private markets and arguably were even before near-term IPOs were on the horizon.
Markets can go risk off for any reason. If they do between now and these companies' IPOs, that spoils the party. But if they don't, there is no reason to suspect the risk capital driving into all manner of speculative equities, to say nothig of structured products and weird debt creatures, is suddenly going to hold the line at the darlings of the private markets.
> there’s talk that in that scenario SpaceX could end up with a 5T valuation
Where?
What would you consider a fair value? Would be interested to see your valuation approach
Liquid cash looking for a home is overwhelmingly white/blue collar retirement money. Billionaire money is almost always a totally undiversified portfolio of their own company. There are billions of people globally who save money and want it to grow, so they hand it over weekly to institutions that do asset management. It's these institutions that are seeking new investments, but the money isn't their own, it's largely everyday people's savings.