I think it's just hard to know this for the people working on it. AI radically changed my life. I'm doing at least 10 times more, more ambitious, higher quality work. I've been listening to people around me talking about alignment and the singularity for almost a decade. It's strange to imagine that people live in a world where this isn't and hasn't been happening for a while now. "Over-hyped" is not the word I would use if I take my daily experience as an example, nor when I consider even lower-bound projections.