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So which one has the biggest chance to be Android/iOS alternative?

Many many years ago, smarphone users had these choices:

Symbian, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, PalmOS... what else?

Windows phone still had the best ux of any smartphone, I just wish the ecosystem was there. To this day nothing even comes close to smart tiles.

AMEN! I loved my Lumia and TRULY nothing beat the UX-ability of the Tiles system.