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A lot of words to say "The initial part of a sigmoidal curve is not very informative about the parameters of the sigmoid function in question."

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That is true, but I generally enjoy reading a lot of words from Scott, who has a talent for writing.

The entire plot of the Lord of the Rings could probably be compressed into less than 10 kB of text too.

Edit: this seems to be a controversial comment, but IMHO a blog of Scott Alexander's type is an art form, not just a communication channel.

I find him more interesting when he talks about non-AI topics. Lots of other interesting people are like this too. I'd rather get my knowledge on AI from people who have unique insights into it. Scott has a lot of unique perspectives of his own, but his views on AI are bog-standard for his social group.

Frankly, me too, but he is still smart enough to introduce some grains of original thought even into those bog-standard views.

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