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Comment by thisisit | Hacker News Reader

Lot of people don't seem to get that - It is easier to go from terrible to average but much harder to go from average to good.

I am sure AI bros are same people who were convinced consumer grade fully automated driving was going happen "by end of the year" for last 7 years.

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No, I never believed in fully automated tale by Tesla, but as the LLMs improve my personal estimate for the date of human-level AGI is rapidly moving to "present". Before GPT-2 I had it somewhere in 2100, at GPT-2 I thought maybe by 2060 if we are lucky. Now I think it is 2035 or maybe even sooner.

I like to see the optimism, even if I don't share it. I think it's incredible hubris that humans think we are about to reinvent our own level of intelligence, just because we made a machine that talks pretty.

Your own comment in my timeline is 7 years out of date. GPT-2 talked pretty, that was its whole thing. If you are trying to claim there's no difference between 5.5 and 2 you are delusional (hallucinating?).

I think I was fairly clear, I said that I think it is hubris to think what we have created is anything even slightly like human intelligence. It talks very pretty (a lot of work has gone into this aspect in particular), and it does demonstrate the extent to which, as individuals, most of us do not have especially unique thoughts nor problems to solve. It exposes how quickly humans jump to anthropomorphizing pretty much anything.

Is it a handy tool? Yep! I use it every day. But it is laughable to think this is the path to AGI. The most common counterargument on HN is some variation of "but you can't prove that this isn't just like how a human thinks". A conspiracy theory at best, just reinforcing the fact that we know very little about how even simple non-human brains function.

You do you. I stick to the simplest reasonable definitions. From my perspective we are already in AGI, just the intelligence isn't quite on human level yet across the board.

I am yet to see anyone saying it's just like human, so it looks like you are mostly hallucinating that too.

You didn't address my point on GPT-2 vs 5.5. Your only relevant claim is that 5.5 talks very pretty vs 2 just pretty I assume. Well, you have to be blind to claim this is the main difference.

I agree with the statement and think a lot of people miss this, but I also wonder how many people probably don't care for good, they only care for 'good enough'.

Many large systems can’t be built good enough because they just fall apart. Try letting a junior dev make an ERP or a database system.

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