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Comment by VimEscapeArtist | Hacker News Reader

I live in Poland. This headline is misleading. Poland didn't build a top-20 economy. Western Europe and the US built their economy in Poland, because the labor is educated and cheap.

There are almost no globally competitive Polish companies. The "growth" is branch offices of German and American corporations taking advantage of engineers who'll work for 40% of Berlin rates. Remove the foreign-owned sector and you're looking at a mid-tier economy running on EU structural funds.

It's a great place to live, genuinely. But calling this "Poland's economy" is like calling a McDonald's franchise "your restaurant"

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That is how all economies grow. It is unnecessary to remove credit from Poland. You say labor is educated, for example. Is that also not their merit?

Didnt USA benefit from mostly not being bombed during ww2? Didnt Germany benefit from cheap Russian gas and educated immigrants after 2008 crisis in EU? In the end, we can keep going back looking for pthers to thank but the country did it, and it is fair to say so.

P.S. I also live in Poland, not Polish. I also lived in Berlin, and I dont think the salaries are always so different.

> P.S. I also live in Poland, not Polish. I also lived in Berlin, and I dont think the salaries are always so different.

Anecdotally this is also my experience. Several countries in eastern Europe have vastly lower taxes, and as a result international companies can pay salaries that are on par with western Europe but still cheaper than an equivalent worker in Germany or France because the cost to the employer is much lower.

Is that how the U.S. and U.K. economies grew to be significant? Mostly foreign investment for cheap labor with hardly any innovation or entrepreneurs of their own?

I don't think that's the case for us.

> That is how all economies grow.

No it’s one way but there are many other ways. Look at the US, stating that they grew because China and the EU exported their industries there is simply false. But through technology advancements, market size, market leadership, etc… is closer to how they achieved their economic growth.

FDI is a legit way of increasing an economy's size and health. The fact that Poland created a safe country for foreign investments is great merit.

yeah it's great if you want to be dependent on US and German political interests

Is that better than being broke and only slightly more sovereign?

Yeah I think this what most miss. FDI is good, great if eventually lead to domestic brand to capture more % of value, like Asian Tigers. I'm not sure if the case in EU, some GDP accounting can grossly conflate actual FDI contribution, i.e. when PRC captured $6 labour for each iphone assembled but it was counting full device cost $100s towards GDP instead of just value add. Same concept as Ireland GDP & corporate tax laundering.

Cursory search shows 1% companies in Poland are foreign enterprises which drive ~40% of output, ~30% of workforce and ~70% of exports. These are companies that will dip if Poland gets too expensive or geopolitics, in the meantime what is Samsung or Hyundai or Huawei of Poland. At end of day, countries need national champions committed to their own midstream industries who end up capturing the rents.

Samsung, Hyundai, or Huawei never happen without starting as FDI or cheap outsourcing.

FDI itself is not enough. Modern national champions happen because state protectionism, typically under autocratic industrial policy (Asian Tigers), in combination with FDI. Hyundai was suppose to be Honda, you can throw TSMC in there. There's no sign Poland is going to get national class to world class champions, because democracies more easily captured and EU forbids tier of subsidies and protectionism that enable giants that compete with established incumbents. Is there any strategic Polish company on road to being world class?

On paper countries can build giants without FDI, but can't build giants without industrial policy Poland can't adopt due to EU trap (which basically designed to keep west euro industrial incumbents on top) and (IMO) if Poland ever tries, FDI tap going to stop. Structurally Poland is periphery not core, allowed to prosper but not overtake, which puts ceiling. Exception being defense, but even then stepping on west euro toes.

The comments have already mentioned CD Projekt and elevenlabs which I would call world class companies even if not huge scale.

> strategic Polish company

Keyword being Strategic, i.e. industrial pillar industries that sustains entire local industrial chains / ecosystem.

Cd Projekt made around 200M$ revenue last year. It's a small company by world standard.

Small, but exemplary, and given the context of the post and arguments, developing exemplary leading companies is a sign that Poland is developing a deep base beyond mere outsourcing, even if there are a small number and they're not huge yet.

It's like comparing a 6-year-old soccer player to Lionel Messi - you're looking at early signs of development, and the progress to getting there, not saying Poland is already there, but there are positive signs it is on that path.

CD Project is a good video game studio, but is unlikely to become a large company - their revenue has been flat for the last 4 years.

EU trap? How far do you think Poland would have come economically without access to the EU common market and without EU subsidies?

Not far, but the EU trap is about the ceiling, it's about how far Poland can potentially go.

If there is such a ceiling (clearly, I doubt it, seeing many of the main German industry leaders going down or offshore, so there is plenty space to grow), it is not of the EU's doing. It it about money and the advantages large incumbents have in our version of market capitalism.

DE still collects checks from global champions offshoring. Offshoring "fine" as long as money flows back to HQ. Allowing peripheral competitors to take your rent on the other hand less fine. The ceiling is EU's doing - it's EU legislation which does not allow member states to adopt the tier of subsidies/industrial policies to build competitors that can rival EU incumbents. Which can lose out to competitors with greater leverage (i.e. US), but unlikely to Poland. Of course cannot say it's impossible, but we have not seen case in modern economic history where global strategic champions arise without massive subsidies/protectionism, the type EU blocks within bloc to lock in existing hierarchy.

Seems like “if Poland gets too expensive” implies more competition for workers from other companies? Then one company pulling out wouldn’t be so bad.

> It's a great place to live, genuinely. But calling this "Poland's economy" is like calling a McDonald's franchise "your restaurant"

Economically? Yes, if you ignore the fact that we're one of the most overworked populations in the first world and pretty much all low-level jobs(restaurant/call office/etc) have abysmally poor working conditions.

Culturally? Developed cities in Western/Northern Poland and Warsaw, sure. But everywhere else is shades of shitty and if you're LGBT+ a third of the country has legislation against your very existence.

Poland has made a lot of progress but calling it a great place to live is - while not altogether untrue - a statement of privilege more than universal reality.

> But everywhere else is shades of shitty and if you're LGBT+ a third of the country has legislation against your very existence.

Source?

foreign dollars and euros being spent in the country definitely counts as growth no matter how you slice it and regardless whether you like it or not.

It is local resources extracted, not foreign spent.

if spotify employs an american and they become more experienced over their tenure were american resources extracted? human capital tends to get better with experience, particularly when dealing with high quality foreign management.

This is zero sum thinking. The foreign companies benefit and the local Polish people benefit. Wealth is created in the process and everyone benefits. What if those companies never came and never employed Polish people? Would Poland be any better off?

Those foreign companies still have to pay Polish taxes,and Polish wages. All that money gets spent into the local economy.

Foreign investment isn't fake growth and money being spent in the country is definitely a good thing. It's how Singapore managed to kickstart its economy in the 1960s. Lee Kuan Yew tried very hard, and succeeded, in getting foreign corporations to set up shop in Singapore. The key is to capture value and move up the chain over time rather than getting stuck as a "cheaper back office".

Yep, and today the situation is completely reversed. Through acquisition and business development Singapore is the country which owns the brands and invests in other countries. Poland just needs to stick to the formula. It's citizens are building global-class professional, managerial, and business development experience. Soon if not already those employees will start itching to build their own businesses. Poland just needs to maintain a competitive environment, and not let international companies suppress local startups by lobbying for anti-competitive laws and policies that favor the big guys, foreign or domestic. If it wants to give local companies a leg up, do it indirectly by investing in education and research.

Of course it counts, and should count. Foreign money enters an economy if that economy is producing something the foreigner wants.

A simple bank transfer into the country does not count as domestic Product.

spot on! its growth - economic capital seeking productive human capital

It's the first step to building the top companies: You first need enough agglomeration of that labor so that, whenever there's a recession, you can scoop up some of that labor for a startup.

And as demand of those cheap engineers go up, salaries rise. It's not just Poland: Go see what happens to engineering salaries in, say, Spain vs Berlin. You find Capgemini opening offices, because the labor is that cheap. New grads making as little as 20k in some regions.

So compared to that, having big tech moving over and paying over local market rates, and expanding enough so salaries end up rising is much better than the alternative: They don't come, there's no money, the engineers emigrate, and the country becomes poorer.

Let’s be honest. If anyone would be building a brand new company in Poland or any other country with the intention of raising capital or IPOing they would still incorporate in the US or a handful of other countries. So any successful Polish company would count as American/ German / Singaporean / etc anyway.

see elevenlabs as a prime example

I don't see that it matters where the capital is raised.

CD Projekt is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Is that an American/German/Singaporean/etc company?

My understanding is that Poland is also seeking smart win-win arrangements with some of these foreign sources. For example, Poland has initiated several big equipment buys from South Korean military suppliers on the condition that most of the manufacturing is done in Poland and that there is technical sharing for future self-sustainment.

It's basically importing expensive R&D for "free" while helping establish a heavy industrial base (which has also proven very fruitful for South Koreans). I'm sure there are other examples like this. You also get a better trained workforce, and then the import of the technical knowledge later where it is slower to digest but with the ability now to turn that knowledge into working production.

I don't think that's a good way to think about the modern economy. Large companies aren't American, German or Polish just because they're founded in one place. The surplus value that a country like Poland adds or that all the producers in the supply chain of Apple or Tesla add are real and contribute to their national economies.

Singapore isn't a "fake rich" country because most of the companies that have settled down there are international businesses, the money is as real as anywhere else, so are the jobs. Always strikes me as a bit atavistic when people talk about companies as if they're owned by a country despite the fact that the value creation and supply chains run through two hundred countries.

What kind of dev salaries are you seeing in Poland?

I have family in Poland, they are from smaller villages and they ALWAYS complain about EU and the economy. I wonder if things are similar in large cities.

this is Poland for you. everyone complains about everything. perhaps that's the secret to success - there's always something to complain about and one in a hundred (or thousand) people actually does something about it.

> this is Poland for you. everyone complains about everything

Must be the proximity to Germany...

It's quite incredible how close Poland and Germany are culturally. And how unaware both countries are about this.

Are they really unaware or do they actively deny the cultural connections? Prussia was a thing not that long ago - it is still used as a slang term for Germans in parts of the Netherlands ("de Pruisen" of "die Preußen"). Anyone who had a bit of history or who has looked at an older map sees that Prussia was divided between what is now Germany and Poland. Of course both countries went through a lot of upheaval between then and now but there's still plenty of people alive who will remember living in Prussia.

> this is Poland for you. everyone complains about everything

That is western Europe for you, not just Poland. Same in the Netherlands, same in Sweden, same in Belgium, same in Denmark, same in Norway, same in France, same in Germany, etcetera. Descartes claimed that he thought, therefore he was. A more realistic and equally erudite quote would be Queror, ergo sum which translates to I complain, therefore I am.

(also, q.e.d. because I'm complaining about people complaining)

>That is western Europe for you, not just Poland

Sorry, no, you are missing the point.

The specific anti-EU complaining among the less-educated, older and rural population which benefits a lot from Poland being an EU state is not the same in Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Norway.

It is the same in Hungary and Slovakia though, for a reason.

Today's news brings us the following headline:

"Fugitive former Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro is now in the United States courtesy of a visa from President Donald Trump after fleeing Hungary, local media report."[1]

In case it is not apparent to you, Ziobro was running on the PiS party ticket — the very same party running on the anti-EU sentiment that the people we're discussing have, in all certainty, voted for.

That's in the wake of another PiS-aligned fugitive judge, Tomasz Szmydt, fleeing investigation for espionage to find refuge in... Belarus[2].

Naturally, he condemned Poland for being too "pro-Western".

Swedish judges don't do that, while hiding in Belarus.

You don't have PiS in Sweden.

And Trump isn't welcoming fugitive Justice Ministers from Sweden into the US because they can't hide in Hungary anymore..

...because the Hungarian MAGA lost the elections there (in spite of JD Vance flying over to campaign for Orban, Orban giving speeches at CPAC, and Trump explicitly praising him).

Do you realize how off mark your objection to applying "the MAGA moniker" to PiS supporters is?

It's not even metaphorical; they're directly collaborating on a political level.

Have a good one, hope you learned something.

Skol.

[1] https://www.politico.eu/article/ex-poland-justice-minister-z...

[2] https://visegradinsight.eu/judge-hater-penitent-spy-the-stor...

> and they ALWAYS complain about EU and the economy

That's funny because Poland became dramatically richer after joining the EU, it allowed them access to one of the richest markets on Earth.

I understand that if you're from a smaller village you might also have missed the enormous infrastructure investments (highways, airports, sewage systems, etc.) that have only been possible because of EU money.

Then there's all the foreign companies that you mentioned whose investments have provided jobs directly and indirectly - as a EU member, Poland has become a lot more attractive for foreign investors.

And arguable, Poland carries a much bigger weight in international policies then it used to.

These points are not to say that there's nothing to criticize about the EU. As a matter of fact, there's not shortage of things to criticize. But it's unfair not to see the enormous gains Poland got since joining.

I would go so far as to argue that Poland is one of the biggest success stories of post-1989 Europe.

> I understand that if you're from a smaller village you might also have missed the enormous infrastructure investments (highways, airports, sewage systems, etc.) that have only been possible because of EU money.

That's the key. There wasn't enough done to ensure that everyone can enjoy the benefits. That why at some point populists won the vote and ruled the country for 8 years. They are still kicking. Recently elected president of Poland is from the populist camp. They still have support even though they didn't really hide their kleptocratic tendencies. Fortunately somehow they didn't manage to do significant macroeconomic harm. But they stalled development of renewables for a decade.

You really ought to call out Nawrocki and PiS by name (populist president/party), for all the non-Europeans out there.

For anyone new to Polish politics, here's an easy mnemonic: PiS = piss.

>Fortunately somehow they didn't manage to do significant macroeconomic harm.

Yay for parliamentary systems with proportional representation.

That's how.

>I have family in Poland, they are from smaller villages and they ALWAYS complain about EU and the economy

Ah, the Polish MAGA.

Probably Russian-influenced as well.

Joining the EU meant giving up some measure of sovereignty, so they're living under a regulatory regime that's probably more extensive than it would be if Poland were independent.

Also, people like to complain.

Typical salary for a senior dev is around 20-30k PLN per month, which translates to $65k-$100k per year (gross). Also, a lot of devs do a little bit of tax avoidance that is currently not persecuted, which allows them to pay total taxes below 20% on that amount. So, your take-home pay is $50k-$80k.

That's a good salary, better than Romania on average. And if you also have lower prices (at least that's what I heard), even better then.

That is a decent salary! I guess it could be an option for me one day if I get tired of the US.

> Typical salary for a senior dev is around 20-30k PLN per month

Typical, yes, though it's possible to earn way more than that. Not that 20-30k PLN per month is bad, the average Polish salary is perhaps around 9k and the median around 7k.

20-30k PLN goes a long way in Poland. Some seven years ago, I was spending around 7k PLN a month, living in the beautiful Warsaw old town, 50 metres from Kolumna Zygmunta, eating out all the time, and generally felt I was living like a king. Good times!

It does go a long way, but note that 2019's 7k PLN is today's 11k (or 15k if you use the Big Mac index).

This website says Senior Java Developer is 20kPLN-27k PLN (64k USD per year after taxes) (employment contract) and 25k PLN-30k PLN if you agree to lose employee rights.

https://bulldogjob.com/it-report/salaries/java

30k PLN per month on employment contract would be 71k usd per year after taxes

These were typical salaries 2+ years ago. Things changes substantially since. New hires earn less across the board, irrespective of experience.

How do you think China grew so much after 1990? A lot of FDI, a lot of protectionism. And look where they are today.

> Western Europe and the US built their economy in Poland, because the labor is educated and cheap. > There are almost no globally competitive Polish companies.

Same issue in all southern and eastern European countries.

Why stop there. Make it all Europe and the Marshall plan.we can probably go back to the Roman empire if we try.

Grossly incorrect and unfounded. There are no Googles there, but there are plenty of mid tier companies delivering quality products. For a blatant example see e.g. Shelly in Bulgaria. Or depending on how you count South, e.g. Vinci or Eni or car producers in Italy.

And not everyone needs to succeed in industrial household names, that e.g. much of southern European economies come from tourism is not a bad thing.

Shelly is anything but quality and also a niche product, when juxtaposed with car manufacturers you mention.

Poland has also the lowest fertility rate of the EU. This growth came at a cost and may be short-lived when the cheap workforce dies out with no replacement.

Allegro is Polish, large and successful, no?

But I only know of them because they bought some successful small companies in my country and shut them down to reduce competition, for which they are universally hated around here.

It was founded in Poland and by poles by I think it’s owned whole by foreign capital - hard to call it polish even though still listed on polish stock exchange. Google branch in Warsaw we wouldn’t call it polish either.

Examples of significant shareholders include:

* Permira Advisers LLP (UK) * Cinven Group Ltd. (UK) * BlackRock (US) * Vanguard (US)

Czechia? I always have to explain that Allegro is not a bad company per se, just absolutely messed up the attempt at conquering Czechia...

saying foreign investment is a bad or invalid growth strategy is wild

are you one of those anti-trade people where the only real ""growth"" doesn't involve foreigners

It's one thing to say they don't want immigrants taking their jobs. But its a whole other thing to discount foreign investment, giving your people jobs, under your rules...

Providing educated labor is a kind of build.

Yes and we see what happens to countries after doing this, they start developing their own domestic industries and economies. It's not a bad strategy to organically build a robust economy either.

First: if you compare rates (salary, wages,...) you also always must consider rents, cost of living etc.

Second: You can't just pick Berlin for comparison.

Third: Take away foreign owend companies from Berlin, you get a cheap, dirty poor capital.

There are plenty of polish companies, but like in Germany many are more in the middle of the spectrum, so they might be well known in their sector but not much beyond. I've seen e.g. plenty of polish building materials and furniture across shops on western Europe.

You gotta have "A" to do "B".

This is one way of having "A" that isn't "massive internal natural resources" like USA, China, Russia, Colonialism, or Oil States (I'm sure I missed other kickstarters here).

It terms of the IT sector there is not much difference to the rest of the Europe. America has dominated the field, China is catching up, especially in global giants category.

> There are almost no globally competitive Polish companies.

there ought to be, but EU capital is taking bad bets. it would be the easiest early stage play in the world

And due to pay rises we’re becoming less and less competitive.

I don’t live in Poland, but this is like comparing a thriving metro area to Silicon Valley. Just because the metro isn’t coming up with the latest ideas doesn’t mean it doesn’t have its own economy - it’s just different. From my outsider perspective this is very much a positive step for Poland and should be celebrated.

just like israel. even india is similar

Reading the article it attributed institutional strength to poland, which is great, but it sounds like this was something the west decided not to sabotage. The oligarchs taking over in e.g. Russia was engineered by the clinton administration and Larry Summers as "shock therapy" when the soviet government fell.

> Western Europe and the US built their economy in Poland, because the labor is educated and cheap.

Yes, for the benefit of their stock markets and at the expense of their own populations.

A rising tide lifts all luxury yachts.

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