That's effectively what all the 99% or 1% prediction markets are: a bet that an asteroid will destroy the planet or that the Rapture will occur or that we'll all upload our consciousnesses into computronium or whatever is not actually a bet that those events will happen (and that the site and enough of the economy will survive to allow you to collect and spend your winnings), it's a bet that the market will resolve incorrectly.
That's not a bad idea. It actually sounds like it could be a very useful hedge/insurance play.
That'd be easier to game than "will somebody run onto the field in the next $sports game". Just bet yes and bring a hair dryer. Make sure somebody posts evidence to X so you can cash out
If the yes side is heavily favored because it's a "sure thing" then there will eventually be people who bet no and hire guards (or go themselves) to defend the weather sensor from the hairdryer-wielders.
This could be the origin of a new sport, and then betting on it would become even more common