Apocalypse Early Warning System
ews.kylemcdonald.net
ews.kylemcdonald.net
It was all fun and games until my VPS host banned me for pinging too many people every few mins.
https://web.archive.org/web/20110516084503/http://www.apocal...
> Self-Described Vampire Pleads Guilty to Threatening Judge
Hahaha :)
Miss such innocent apocalyptic indicators. Well, reading the linked archived article, maybe not that innocent. Just not as relevant.
I would bet on the exact opposite. Unless you're within a few hundred meters of ground zero you're better off seeking shelter than trying to run, and if you are running you only want to go those few hundred meters and then take shelter. The local airport where your plane presumably is would be far more likely to be targeted than your current location. Traveling to the airport, especially in the chaos of people scrambling for shelter, is probably going to take much longer than you have time for and you are much more exposed than if you went into a basement/subway/concrete stairwell. Even if you could physically get to the airport in time, that doesn't do you much good if the plane isn't ready to go. If the plane is on hot-standby you might be able to take off within 10 minutes of getting to the airport, but if we're assuming this is a sudden development you gotta get the crew to the plane, you need to fuel the plane, etc; you're not getting off the ground in less than half an hour. If by some miracle you could get up in the air before the nuke hit, the air is the worst possible place to be. There is nothing between your plane and the pressure wave of the nuke. Your plane's electronics are going to get fried by EMPs. There's a decent chance your pilot will go blind depending on where the nuke actually hits. Even if you manage to stay in the air - now what? You need to land eventually. Most airports have been destroyed, and air traffic control is probably down or at best too busy to deal with you so you don't know if you're actually going to be able to land at any particular destination. Absolute best case scenario you land in a random location where everyone of the ground is several hours ahead of you into a SHTF situation.
I'm not saying nobody will try it, but I would think most people with access to private jets probably have access to or could acquire access to basements in well built buildings that are a decent bit away from likely targets of nuclear strikes.
In reality, look at things like the 9/11 attacks, the 2004 tsunami, the Covid lockdowns, the Maduro raid: the elites didn't fly out all at once shortly ahead of time before the plebs knew what was going to happen. No doubt you can think of good reasons why it didn't happen in those circumstances, but trying to come up with a scenario where it actually would happen is quite a bit more challenging.
Most rich people work in cities.
They will want to get to their hideaways quickly.
People with private plane wealth aren't going into work near a potential nuclear strike target when nuclear war is imminent.
Oldschool piston engine aircraft with magnetos will probably be fine.
If you wanted to be really sure, look into the diesel engine conversions based on good old Peugeot XUDs - and your Citroën BX will be unaffected too ;-)
And they have the money to pay for the people who can interpret this information and assess the risks.
Most of the time, they use this information to do some nice trades. But should things start to get very seriously moving towards a Nuclear Confrontation, they would probably know it way before us.
Nowadays, the US or Israel are the most probable countries to initiate a first strike, but this wouldn't happen before a large preparation window where the information would have time enough to reach the top of our rulling class.
Which would not result in them scrambling to get airborne all at once, and thus not produce the signal that this site is set up to look for. The elites may have a more precise estimate on when exactly a war's going down, but they also have no reason to stick around ground zero till the last minute.
In COVID's case nobody knew how governments all over the world would react and how bad the situation would get (and rich people weren't particularly affected anyway) but for wars we do have regular insider trading happening because it's easy to know more or less exactly "there is going to be an attack".
Another indicator we could track.
We will all know from the news that something really bad is about to happen before this indicator goes high. Polymarket is a way better indicator.
> Level 5 is calibrated so only the highest daily peak in the trailing year should exceed it.
1. I think the logic behind this particular concept flawed. What's the flight time for an ICBM? 20 minutes if from Russia, and less than that from a submarine? I don't think a billionaire could get to his jet in time, unless he lives on an airstrip like John Travolta. Some might get some early notice if their country planned a first strike (but I doubt it, as loose-lips like that would probably give the enemy notice, too).
2. I think if nuclear war is actually immanent, your best bet of an early warning is an EAS National/Presidential alert (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Alert_System), because I'd hope people with access to actual early-warning sensors would cause one to be sent (while they're getting ready for a second-strike attack). But, given the shambolic nature of post-Cold War government, that could be a foolish hope.
The more effective thing is probably something scanning a news feeds for world events that indicate a major crisis progressing up the escalation ladder. Stuff like conflicts involving nuclear powers, threats of nuclear weapon use, reports of unusual activity of emergency command and control aircraft (like going on alert), use of tactical nuclear weapons, etc.
Thus, the 4% yes are not necessarily people actively pushing back against "No", but rather an artefact of discounting. To alleviate that (and make bets near the extremes track implied probabilities more closely), the cost of making a bet should not be the currently traded probability (plus a spread), but the currently traded probability times the discount factor to resolution time. (This gets tricky if resolution time is probabilistic, of course.)
To add to that, even if there's zero probability of an actual Second Coming, there's nonzero risk whatever oracle a betting market uses gets hijacked by Second Coming believers who resolve some new Jesus.AI or declaration by a cult leader as representing the authentic return of the Biblical Jesus, plus risks of exchanges defaulting on all bets or your winnings being locked up for gambling-restriction related reasons. For related reasons, you could earn money betting on Trump winning the most votes in 2020 after they'd been counted.
> The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price.
E-4Bs, E-6s, VC-25As, C-32A, etc plus mass helo flights exiting DC.
Topic reminds me of the movie Miracle Mile.
The various doomsday planes regularly take part in nuclear exercises - which are treated as signals for both friends and foes - so there's quite a bit of data to keep.
Conclusion: unless a full first strike is scheduled beforehand and you're high up enough to be in the loop, you're very unlikely to get much notice.
I have little faith that a compound in NZ or HI would be much use unless you move there well ahead of any Event.
And possibly not much after, because with supply chains gone you're going to start running out of essential spare parts and consumables (including medical supplies) within a decade at most.
This would be a great thing to add to the apocalypse tracker. Though I guess it might be a bit tricky. Would need to know the baseline of normal operations. And what would be more or less typical while conflicts, like the current one, are ongoing. Then figure out what would be a sufficient deviance from that for alarm thresholds.
These were deliberately visible to show that the US is not messing around this time. A mass evacuation would never advertise in ads-b. But perhaps you could see a drop in activity as hidden planes get priority on the runway?
So I imagine planes in other countries exist, but the US FAA doesn't have data on them.
Or that an excavator took out some fiber.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before...
It's _The Future_ by Naomi Alderman.
Worst case scenario a fighter jet will be scrambled to investigate.
But in apocalypse scenario, chances are the fighter jets will be busy with tasks other than enforcing FAA rules.
Depending on the type of event, they very well could be scrambling to shoot down unidentified aircraft.
Fog of war sucks, and friendly fire still happens often.
If governments and airspace control have already collapsed, post tense, then of course anything goes.
Plus transponders are really convenient when you’re trying not to crash into other air traffic. Particularly in a scenario where you might be expecting ATC to be unavailable or abandoning their posts.
The latency of constructing a semi-reliable warning signal from the data sources described significantly exceeds the latency of event onset. You can modify the algorithms to reduce latency but then the false positive rate skyrockets. Not what you want for an "apocalypse" early warning system.
To mitigate this you need more data from more diverse sources and lower latency feeds.
Why would that be true? There would never be enough warning to get to the airport and take off anywhere, even if everything else was still working perfectly.
Google will use the popularity of this site as a leading indicator in its own index.
Immediately turning on such a leader would be a bad move, because you'd then have to fight all the other traitors for your share of the loot.
Reminds me this this post from Reddit the other day from someone who believes AI is a conspiracy perpetuated by the rich people: https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1syeppa/am_i_ov...
In fact, most big banks and other big companies have retired defense and intelligence people explicitly working on risk assessment.
It’s (often unspoken) quid pro quo.
Like getting years of millions of dollars in speaking deals from corps after a favorable administration.
I noticed you had no retort for my other (name dropping) reply…
All this to say, I actually find the thing hillarious, though. If there's an actual apocalypse a plane will not save you.
The reality is, much like American wealth, the distribution is super-exponential. If you actually wanted this to be kind of useful, you'd only look at the tail numbers known to belong to people who are associates of US senators, high ranking congressmen, and senior defense officials (Raytheon/LM/NG/Boeing execs).
That said, the *actual* reality is you'll just fucking know because it'll be obvious things are escalating out of control. The government is not mystically competent, they're morons like us just figuring it out as they go along. If things were to somehow pop off unexpectedly you only have somewhere between 3 and 30 minutes which is not enough time to get an aircraft in the air with no notice.
TLDR this doesn't do anything. It's cool though
If you want to destabilise an economy, destroy science and R&D, nuke healthcare, ruin decades of trust with allies, disassemble democratic checks and balances, co-opt the media, and give most of the population a nervous breakdown that has them believing batshit divisive nonsense, you certainly don't need nuclear weapons to do it.