Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? At least the Saudis have pipelines - UAE is fucked
Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline [1] that takes ~7Mbpd (million barrels per day) of oil to Red Sea ports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. They were already using it so there's not a lot of extra capacity they can get out. If we continue up the escalation ladder, the next big risk is that the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, which is a not-quite-as-narrow but still vulnerable chokepoint to the Red Sea.
The UAE has the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Cross Oil Pipeline) [2], which takes ~1.8Mbpd to the Gulf of Oman. This is beyond the Strait of Hormuz but not that far so technically is still vulnerable to drone attacks (in particular) from Iran if, again, we climb the escalation ladder.
The real issue is American security guarantees to GCC nations have been shown to be an illusion. Heck, the US can't protect their own bases in the region. Also, the US can't protect maritime traffic through the Strait. I mean this is in all seriousness: there is no military solution to this problem short of the use of nuclear weapons.
That means we are now in a situation where the US has to either split with Israel and offer Iran significantly better terms than they had before the war, likely including the lfiting of economic sanctions, or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn. And who knows what a prolonged impasse will do to Europe, particularly come winter.
So far, the US seems to prefer letting the world burn rather thans plitting with Israel.
A protection racket ceases to be a protection racket if it no longer offers protection.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habshan%E2%80%93Fujairah_oil_p...
They won't sit still, though. Eventually, if this were tried, we'd see Chinese-flagged tankers buying passage rights from Iran and being escorted by PLAN ships.
No way does Commander TACO take that shot. The US interdiction threat in the gulf is empty, and everyone know it. Iran gets paid at the end of every story. The whole boondoggle has been a failure for the US in every analysis.
This would be a blunder by Beijing. It would involve trotting their ships through half a world of American and allied sensors, only to put an untested-in-blue-waters navy perilously far from nearest bases or support if anything goes wrong.
I’m not saying the likes of Xi, Putin or Trump couldn’t do it. But it would be an intelligence bonanza for the West, India, Japan and Taiwan.
> untested-in-blue-waters navy
Mass killing, global recession, fertilizer shortages potentially leading to widespread famine and....Slashdot references?
Oh man, this timeline is the worst, but it is absolutely the most entertaining.
I have the impression that somehow if the world will go into a recession, China will come out ahead. It looks like they either prepared for it or they have enough space to maneuver.
That is the plan: After decoupling the EU from Russia gas by provoking the Ukraine war, now it is time for the Asian countries to be cut off from gulf oil/gas, so the US fracking projects become economical and the entire "allied" countries depend on the US petrostate.
It is the only way to preserve US hegemony. Since this long term project is bipartisan, higher gas prices in the US don't matter before the midterm elections.
The only difference in foreign policy between Trump and Biden is that Trump is more risk taking and often spells out the real intentions, such as "we'll take the oil".
Perhaps worth noting that the US is not unscathed in this, as oil/petroleum is a global market that includes the US. US domestic gas pump prices (which is input into everything, including groceries) go up when global oil prices go up. Not to mention things like fertilize (and, as a lot of people suddenly found out, the importance of helium).
And it's not like the US can practically stop exports, as a lot what the US produces can't be processed by their own refineries (at least at prices palatable to the consumer).
* https://blog.drillingmaps.com/2025/06/this-is-why-us-cant-us...
So it's not wrong to say that the world may end up in a global recession, and Asian countries have more acute problems that will hit sooner than the US, but the US will also face those issues if things drag on.
Yes precisely.
> This is just hasbara propaganda and Zionist lies and it has no place in a civil discussion.
Oh I thought you meant the Islamist propaganda. Iran threatening the US, funding Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are documented facts. Iran even wanted a ceasefire against Hezbollah in the recent negotations. And Jewish people deserve to be able to live in their own homeland, thinking otherwise is racist.
What's absent from your comment entirely is the humanity and rights of the Palestinians whose presence the Israelis deny entirely. This is what I mean by being detached from reality.
> > Iran threatening the US, funding Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are documented facts. Iran even wanted a ceasefire against Hezbollah in the recent negotations. And Jewish people deserve to be able to live in their own homeland, thinking otherwise is racist.
Do you actually want to respond to that or will you just want to rant about people thinking Jews should dare live in their homeland?
> Jewish people live peacefully in Palestine
No. There is documented history of violence and suppression by Muslim colonisers towards Jewish people. This is consistent with how Islam has treated other minority groups in areas it has controlled for the last thousand years. This is why the British partitioned the area into Jewish and Arab states.
> Zionists came from Europe.
Jewish people are from Judea. The key is in the name. A name which is older than the Bar Kochba rebellion which caused the Romans to rename Judea to Philestinia, which Yassar Arafat and the other people that invented the "Palestinian" identity in the 1960 are not.
> rights of the Palestinians whose presence the Israelis deny entirely.
Arabs in Israel have more rights than Arabs in Arab countries.
Jewish people in Gaza and Palestinian parts of Judea/Samaria are torturedm raped and killed.
Who is denying rights?
It's pretty convoluted logic to blame Israel for Iran attacking the UAE.
The Saudi crown prince wants Trump to continue the war still.
1: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-israel-attack-iran-iran-i... 2: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/saudi-prince-...
Relying on statements by the Trump administration as proof of this makes it even more spurious.
That said, MBS has done worse and it's not impossible, but alignment with UAE is faltering more and more so it's possible even if they once favored that action by the US they no longer hold the same view.
I am not claiming Saudis want what's best for the region, only that, even if they wanted war with Iran, they likely now no longer do, or at least would like the conflict to wrap up due to the heavy costs its inflicted on the region.
UAE will see the the whole region burn if it means MBZ can keep his seat.
Regardless, my point was that people have a political axe to grind and call this “Israel’s war”.
They intentionally ignore the political realities that the Iranians have pissed off almost everyone in the region and the longstanding tension of the IRGC and the US and our new “Cold War” with China.
That was the argued point, not the US.