Again if you want to say they're limited in some way, I'm all ears, I'm sure they are. But none of that has anything to do with "statistical text generation". Apparently, a huge chunk of all knowledge work is "statistical text generation". I choose to draw from that the conclusion that the "text generation" part of this is not interesting.
You seem to be making the claim that LLMs are statistical text generators, but statistical text generation is good enough to succeed in certain cases. Those are different arguments. What do you actually believe? Are we even in disagreement?
So you agree that LLMs are in fact statistical text generators but you don’t like people use that fact in arguments about the capabilities of the things?
But it is no longer useful to bring that fact up when conversing about their capabilities. Saying "well it's a statistical text generator so ..." is approximately as useful as saying "well it's made of atoms so ...". There are probably some very niche circumstances under which statements of each of those forms is useful but by and large they are not and you can safely ignore anyone who utters them.
And your evidence that they aren't is ... ?
Umm, why doesn't it capture it? Why can't a statistical text generator do amazing things without _actually_ being intelligent (I'm thinking agency here)? I think it's important to remind ourselves, these things do not reflect or understand what they're outputting. That is 100% evident with the continuing issues with them outputting nonsense along with their apparently insightful output. The article itself said the output was poor but the student noticed something about it that sparked an idea and he followed that lead.
To clarify: the problem I have with "statistical text generator" isn't the word "statistical". It's "text generator". It's been two years now since that stopped being a reasonable way to completely encapsulate what these systems do. The models themselves are now run iteratively, with an initial human-defined prompt cascading into series of LLM-generated interim prompts and tool calls. That process is not purely, or even primarily, one of "text generation"; it's bidirectional, and involves deep implicit searches.
To be clear, I'm 100% with you that "next token predictor" is stupid to call what these machines are now. We are engineers and can shape the capability landscape to give rise to a ton of emergent behavior. It's kind of amazing. In that sense, being precise about what's going on, rather than being essentialist (technically, yes, the 'actual' algorithm, whatever that even means, is text prediction), is just good epistemology.
I still think it's still a very interesting question though to ask about deeper emergent structures. To me, this is evidence of a more embedded cognition kind of theory of intelligence (admittedly this is not very precise). But IDK how into philosophy you are.
I do think LLM's are evolving towards this kind of embodied cognition type intelligence, in virtue of how well they interoperate with text. I mean, you don't need to "make the text intelligible" to the LLM, the LLM just understands all kinds of garbage you throw at it.
Now the question is: Is intelligence being able to interoperate?
In the traditional sense, no. Well, in a loose sense, yes, because people would've said that intelligence is the ability to do anything, but that's not a useful category (otherwise, traditional computer programs would be "intelligent"). But when I hear that, I think something like "The models can represent an objective reality well, it makes correct predictions more often than not, it's one of these fictional characters that gets everything and anything right". This is how it's framed in a lot of pop culture, and a lot of "rationalist" (lesswrong) style spaces.
But if LLM's can understand a ton of unstructured intent and interoperate with all of our software tools pretty damn well... I mean, I would not call that "a bunch of hacks". In some sense, this is an appeal to the embedded cognition program. Brain in a vat approach to intelligence fails.
But it clearly enables new capabilities that previously were only possible with human intelligence. In a very blatant negative form: The surveillance state is 100% now possible with AI. It doesn't take deep knowledge of Quantum Physics to implement, with a large amount of engineering effort, data pipelines and data lakes, and to have LLM's spread out throughout the system, monitoring victims.
So I'd call it intelligence, but with a qualifier to not slip between slippery slopes. It may even be valid to call the previous notion of intelligence a bad one, sure. But I think the issue you may be running into is that it feels like people are conflating all sorts of notions of intelligence.
Now, you can add an ad hoc hypothesis here: In order to interoperate, you have to reason over some kind of hidden latent space that no human was able to do before. Being able to interoperate is not orthogonal to general intelligence - it could be argued that intelligence is interoperation.
If you're arguing for embodied cognition, fine, we agree to some extent :)
The fear is that the AI clearly must be able to emulate, internally, a latent space that reflects some "objective notion of reality". If it did that, then shit, this just breaks all of the victories of empiricism, man. Tell me about a language model that can just sit in a vat, and objectively derive quantum mechanics by just thinking about it really hard, with only data from before the 1900s.
I don't think you need to be this caricature of intelligence to be intelligent, is what I'm saying, and interoperability is definitely a big aspect of intelligence.