A counterpoint is Google saying the vast majority of their code is written by AI. The developers at Google are not inexperienced. They build complex critical systems.
But it still feels odd to me, this contradiction. Yes there’s some skill to using AI but that doesn’t feel enough to explain the gap in perception. Your point would really explain it wonderfully well, but it’s contradicted by pronouncements by major companies.
One thing I would add is that code quality is absolutely tanking. PG mentioned YC companies adopted AI generated code at Google levels years ago. Yesterday I was using the software of one such company and it has “Claude code” levels of bugginess. I see it in a bunch of startups. One of the tells is they seem to experience regressions, which is bizarre. I guess that indicates bugs with their AI generated tests.
Alternatively, it could be there’s a large swath of people out there so stupid they are proud of code your mom can somehow review and suggest improvements in despite being nontechnical.
I don't think this is a hypothesis.
Outside of asking for one-shot tasks that have been done a million times before, LLMs do not "default" to good work.
If you ask them over-and-over again to find holes in their solution, to fix them, to evaluate for tech debt, to test all cases, to re-asses after the cases if it's architecturally coherent, to compare to the closest available known good implementations, etc etc, they can eventually get what you want done unbelievably cheaply to an acceptable level of quality.
I mentioned initially - their work is unbelievably cheap, you should be EAGER to reject it. Most people wouldn't even bend down to pick a penny up off the sidewalk. They can literally pump out CLs for a penny. You shouldn't even waste time looking at "I'm done" until they've gone through 10+ rounds of reviews, refactors, bug fixes, thought of more test cases, compared to known implementations, etc.
Why are you going to spend ~$50-$100+ of your time reviewing $0.01 of LLM time?! It makes no sense!
If you just listen to them say "I'm done" and move on to their next task, it won't take too many days before you're swimming in a sea of incoherent garbage.