I think 3 and 4 are frauds on others in the prediction market agreement. As in, it’s fraud against the terms of the market.
The problem is "insider trading" has a definition and acting based on knowledge of government secrets isn't what it is.
IANAL but what you state seems to literally fall under the STOCK Act of 2012. It is one kind of insider trading.
And what I am saying is that the same articles of prosecution as in the soldier's case are applicable for their case too. Not going after them is a choice.