Even if you suppose my example is bad, you should be able to envision some case where such hedge is helpful.
Even if you suppose my example is bad, you should be able to envision some case where such hedge is helpful.
The reason it works better is because in a prediction market, the person betting against you has no resources or ability to go after you for fraudulent behavior. Whereas an insurance company has both.
So you are renaming something that doesn't and won't ever exist.
Exploiting people with gambling addiction is not a reasonable replacement for insurance.
Insurance works on repeatable, predictable risks based on models.
You can't get insurance against a military attack. But you can hedge using a prediction market. It's essentially the version of insurance for one-off events, that relies on wagers since you can't use models.