Google Fiber is live in Kansas City, real-world speeds at 700 Mbps
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
(I want to be clear: Speculation ahead.)
Mobile phone providers and internet providers (in America) seem to be setting data caps artificially low and saying that it covers the most common use cases (98% of customers) so it shouldn't be something we have to worry about.
Except that I imagine these very low caps are long play to justify price increases when using 4 or 8 or 20+ GB per month on your phone becomes the norm, or 600GB/month on your desktop becomes the norm.
Hopefully Google (and other companies) can show consumers in America (and perhaps elsewhere) the possibilities of large amounts of data over the wire TODAY so that its not a slow climb to higher caps, but a more abrupt shift for some that leaves far more complaints at Comcast and Verizon's door.
They won't reply to power-user consumers, they don't care. One only hopes they'll reply to mass consumers using their competition, even if it is merely tangential competition for the most part.
http://www.fakesteve.net/2009/12/a-not-so-brief-chat-with-ra...
"Now there was a lot of demand for [the "Meet the Beatles"] record — so much that the plant that printed the records could not keep up. Now here’s the lesson. Do you think the guys who were running Capitol Records said, Gee whiz, the kids are buying up this record at such a crazy pace that our printing plant can’t keep up — we’d better find a way to slow things down. Maybe we can create an incentive that would discourage people from buying the record. Do you think they said that? No, they did not. What they did was, they went out and found another printing plant. And another one and another one, until they could make as many records as people wanted.
[AT&T CEO] Randall is like, Okay, I get your point. I’m like, You know what, I don’t think you do, because if you did, we wouldn’t be sitting here having this conversation, would we?"
Consumers would love faster broadband, but they can't afford to pay more for it. Businesses can, and they have a variety of options available.
That being said, I'm jealous, so very jealous of Kansas right now.
In fact Google's product is rational: If you are going to bother to build out in a competitor's territory, you want to get all of your competitor's customers to switch, so you need a disruptive product.
Google is spot on to roll out FTTH, but existing plants aren't going to disappear any time soon, and likely will not react to the disruption play at large.
An even better analogy is that the companies that build airplanes also build cars. They have a decent margin on cars but a much lower margin on airplanes. So, even if they could make planes that were larger and faster, they profit more from keeping people driving their cars.
Market research had revealed that many customers thought Concorde was more expensive than it actually was; thus ticket prices were progressively raised to match these perceptions.[36] It is reported that British Airways then ran Concorde at a profit, unlike their French counterpart.[127][128] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde
As to network capacity, it's actually fairly cheap, prices are based around perceived value not cost just look at text messaging plans. That and cable competing with hulu/netflix.
I work for a mobile phone provider in the US. I'm at the bottom of the totem pole, so I'm not really privy to what the people at the top are thinking (and don't think what I'm saying is in any way official), but I don't think this is true. We really do have bandwidth constraints, and it takes a small fortune plus a couple years to slog through the process of putting up a new cell site.
The reality is if we don't have caps some percentage of our customers is going bittorrent twenty HD movies at the same time, completely swamping that leg of our network and causing everyone else's cat videos to start buffering. If we double our capacity they'll just double the number of movies they download at the same time. We can't win by adding capacity.
The part that pisses me off about all this is everyone I know who compulsively downloads a bunch of movies hardly ever actually watches them. It's some kind of pack rat syndrome.
Mr Torrent has no real-time requirement. So, shape his traffic when other customers are streaming.
At 3am, when nobody is using your network, torrenting HD movies is no problem.
Facebook and other Web 2.0 companies could not exist without DSL/cable/3G/4G connectivity - photos would take too long to load, for example.
Beyond increases in resolution and fidelity in multimedia, I speculate what would be truly innovative with this sort of speed. Any ideas?
For example, it would be possible to do sub-minute DNA analysis on the cloud by quickly reading a tissue sample.
To do DNA analysis on the spot like that would require some more improvements in sequencing technology first before you could classify the upload to a service as the bottle-neck.
They could sell that thing with practically nothing inside -- no hard drive, barely any RAM, no processor to speak of, just a screen and a keyboard -- and it could outperform the best desktops that money can buy, just by offloading computation to Google's massive data centers in real time.
Of course, in the short term latency will still be an issue. So more realistic would be to just get rid of the hard drive (why bother? It's practically the same delay to access the nearest data center's SSD as your own), but keep the RAM and GPU, and enough of the CPU to keep things running smoothly. But I definitely expect to see computation offloaded to the cloud as Internet speeds ramp up. It would be super cool to be writing a python script to test something out and just type in a call MapReduce or whatever on gigs of data, and have it Just Work in the cloud in real time.
Cloud only pays off if you're doing something major short-term (your load is spikes and then drops off for a while), or you're just plain lazy.
Come to think of it; perhaps Rob Pike and Ken Thompson are already working on this in Google's secret lab? Maybe using and improving more of their old design than anybody will realize. As PG discovered in 1995 (see Beating the Averages), when your product runs on your servers, you can use whatever technology works best to implement it.
When I tried it, jobs up to 40 of their virtual cores (they load share across EC2s) would execute immediately, while more than that triggered job queuing.
Except it's not. And 700Mbps is still only about 1/3 of the throughput of current cheap-ish laptop SSD's, and a magnitude less than higher end server grade SSD setups...
We've got quite a way to go yet, and for many types of applications, latency will remain a reason for local storage "forever" for the simple reason of speed of light.
That being said, to an end user, the difference between 100 nanoseconds and 100 milliseconds is - probably - very small.
1/1000000000 vs. 1/1000
Six orders of magnitude.
Edit: your point may hold true as I'm not sure SSD access or seek times are in the 10ns range.
I've seen estimates that Google fiber latency (when plugged in, to the nearest Google datacenter) could be anywhere from microseconds to 10s of milliseconds, but I don't have any reliable sources and I don't have any expertise here myself.
I'm hoping that someone who does know might chime in?
When doing a live video conference, you can only have about a 1 to 2 second buffer before the connection becomes unusably laggy.
[0] - or lower the pricing, or sth.
This is actually part of my YC application, to bring advancements in technology (ie, bandwith, interwebnets) to scientific data. With core facilities running huge amounts of samples, and doing it in a consistent manner that is shared in real time, we could really make some improvements to scientific advancements.
Is it just me, or does this read incredibly similarly to an Onion article?
Can you comment on Ben Barreth? I read the article but I don't understand how this could be sustainable. Mortgaging your 401K in the hopes of getting donations on a charity project seems like a no-win situation. And I'm not speaking strictly from a financial perspective. Can you give us some more perspective on this? Or if Ben is out there, maybe he can comment. Thanks!
1) rent one of the rooms on airbnb? Need 16+ days a month rented to break even. Maybe push Fiber tourism? 2) get corporate sponsorship. Ask 10 small-mid businesses to sponsor $100/month for the house. Stick their logo all over the walls and the website 3) when google comes out with the business plan, install a new fiber drop and host a mini data center in the home for non-production clients (I imagine I'd have to compete with a bunch of ppl in KC for this service, once Google opens those doors).
http://www.theonion.com/articles/last-male-heir-to-bloodline...
I think I read somewhere that they are upgrading the ESNet backbone to be 100Gbit/s and GEANT's[3] to be 1000 Gbit/s, so I wouldn't immediately write off University/academic networking as automatically inferior to Google's.
Honestly it's hard to tell without knowing any of the details of how much capacity Google is provisioning in Kansas City (and how much contention there is). How much backbone fiber is laid to KS/MO - it doesn't seem to be where existing big-scale connectivity is (unlike say, DC Metro area where a ton of datacenters are located or London/Paris/Amsterdam).
[1] http://www.es.net/ [2] http://www.internet2.edu/ [3] http://www.geant.net/pages/home.aspx
Now, if you think of businesses, then the demand for data throughput might be 10x greater or more. Depends on the type of the business and number of users (users also being servers).
The barriers they have to entry might be significant to you or me, but they are pretty trivial to Google, especially in the wired space. In the wireless space they still need to overcome the insane bidding for spectrum that the duopoly permits.
Google needs KC to prove that the $70 price for fibre is not 'below market', once they've rolled out a profitable fibre service @ $70 per month they can roll into markets full of regulatory capture and the FTC will be largely unable to say that they are using their search monopoly to undercut telcos.
If they don't offer phone service the telco is even more screwed as that's where most of the regulatory power is.
I'm not sure if this is common in other cities, but it really wouldn't surprise me one bit.
I currently have 75/20 in my apartment and I don't think I've yet to be in a situation where I needed more speed or was frustrated about my speeds, the problem for consumer broadband seems to be that while there are people with good connections there are still tens of millions scraping by with 1 or 2mbps which is holding their internet enjoyment back a great deal. My parents are living with around 1.5mbps (with fluctuations) making even basic streaming difficult. Hopefully the fact that Google are managing to do this will make ISPs step up their game, although I'm not sure what Google are going for here (proof of tech? entering consumer ISP space?).
So many applications for this, one can't even begin to name 'm all.
.edit: ooh, remote desktop gaming... sweet!
Replacing optical media with high speed lines would allow some funky new market mechanics like...
Games:
- Instead of downloading the full 12Gb+ game, simply load levels/textures as needed
- Distributed game session hosting where the players temporarily and reliably become the host of a shard
- Something like OnLive could be high res/low image compression/ultra low latency
- Download 12Gb+ games on a whim and pay as you go for playing it - stop playing/paying for it and the provider can cancel the game's certificate and it gets pulled from the system. Want it back? Download it again in a minute, save games and all
Movies:
- Make way for 4k video via net
- Make way for low compression 1080p video via net
- Make way for every person in the household streaming 1080p...while video chatting in 1080p, while playing an RTS on an OnLive-like service...while backing up their files to a remote server. Etc.
The future is going to need some big pipes.
I think that's how Halo's online gameplay has worked for a while. http://halo.wikia.com/wiki/Connection_Host
Not really. Host advantage is still a thing that happens in a lot of multiplayer games, and peer-to-peer multiplayer has never come close to the same experience as a dedicated server.
I just meant the outrage over it seems to be much less a thing now. Now it's just accepted that this is how it should be done. I think like afterburner suggested in the sister comment to this one, those who were seriously offput by it have left and that's that.
Personally, I dropped XBL years ago because I was tired of children eager to sling racial and homophobic slurs. Playing games online just wasn't fun to me. I went on to play a lot of TF2, but virtually no one there uses headphones mics either. That, to me, was the appeal of Xbox Live. Everyone had a mic. We were to communicate and make the games fun on a whole new level. Instead, well, no. That didn't happen.
Sort of. 12GB (I presume you meant GB) still takes a minute or two to move around locally- storage isn't fast enough to flush 12GB in seconds.
Now, if your device just had comical amounts of RAM, you could manage it.
And 1080p is nothing. It's already outmatched by the retina display on a Macbook Pro. Right now the utility of higher resolution displays is limited by the lack of availability of media, since net connections are too slow and BluRay is the best you can do with optical media, but that bottleneck would go away with higher speeds.
Blizzard has already executed this impressively for several of their titles. Starcraft II is an 8GB download, but after about 400MB you can actually start the game. It'll then continue downloading non-invasively in the background while loading needed data on demand. Same goes for World of Warcraft, and probably other titles as well.
* Your computer can become just a screen with a Ethernet cable in the back. The desktop comes from the cloud.
* Dito for your TV/Games console. Instead of buying a PSP or XBox that can all be run in the cloud and just streamed to your display.
A whole bunch of things we do today just get an order of magintude easier - streaming video and audio to and from the house, downloading content, hosting services out of our home, etc, etc
>Dito for your TV/Games console. Instead of buying a PSP or XBox that can all be run in the cloud and just streamed to your display.
Oh boy I can have even less control over my stuff than I do now.
Perhaps then software will become versionless, and we just run the latest and greatest that has been pushed to the public.
I have 50Mb/s over 10Mb/s which I pay handsomely to Comcast for. No cap is nice. No packet inspection is nice. No QOS on ports is nice. I've had it a year. We very easily do 500-1000GB a month, and are just pulling down SD video at about 300-500MB per file.
I have backups with Arq once an hour to S3 that take longer than I want. I keep a full time VPN on the media server that downloads torrents, there's a few phones, tablets, etc. it's pretty easy to saturate the upstream. And I would live to lite up the VPN network wide.
Funny that the VPN service is unlimited and faster than my connection and I only pay $29.00 a month plus get much more than just VPN. It could be lower if I just wanted VPN.
The VPN provider can afford it, are making a profitable business out of it, and push it to 100% of their users. Yet Comcast and AT&T would like us to believe 1-5% of their users could even make an impact on their network if they tried?! If they can, that's sad that a small business can better manage their infrastructure than an actual upstream wholesale provider and/or cable supplier. Comcast shuffles uncompressed HD from their feeds at 6.6Gb/s [1] all day long. NetFlix drops the data at their front door so it's free. They have plenty of overhead for us Internet users.
http://www.ciena.com/connect/blog/How-much-bandwidth-does-Br...
Just for fun I throttled my laptop down to 2Mb/s synchronous, remembering back to the day when I paid $600.00 a month for a T1 at 1.54 Mb/s and people were amazed. I felt at the throttled 2Mb/s the connection was non useable.
We are falling behind. The only way this is going to get fixed is if Americans start to see that we are sitting at ~13th place in some "contest", and that China, Iran, Africa, Bulgaria, and third world countries we have a general sentiment of dislike for — are winning the "contest".
At that point Americans will care. How dare the Russians beat us into space. How dare the Koreans can build a better Internet than us!
And really, even then, so what? People's hearts just don't seem to be in that contest anymore. I think they're more likely to care about beating their friends in fashion than another nation. And if their friends don't have it, then they don't care much either. Hopefully this is here something like Google Fiber makes a difference. But then, without software to make it stand out...
I think it'll take true spectacle to get people really interested. As much as you or I would like this kind of thing, I just don't know what would sell it to the average person without requiring the purchase of additional tech as well.
Speed isn't the biggest issue. Reliability is. Until my broadband is as reliable as my power supply, that's not an option I'd tolerate.
> Perhaps then software will become versionless, and we just run the latest and greatest that has been pushed to the public.
That's a terrifying prospect, given that pretty much every major software upgrade I've experienced have broken one or the other feature I like or need. I'll take my software upgrades when I'm prepared, thank you...
But I'm like you and prefer to have control over my own software and data. I might use it for tablets or ereaders though.
I think that a lot of people from kids to elderly ones are sharing their digital photos or videos and in my opinion it clearly improves the experience when you upload somwhere or drag-and-drop your 500 vacation pictures to your aunt in your favorite IM and BOOM - they are already transferred instead of waiting for minutes or even hours.
There is no shortage of high-value, broad-market cases.
This seems to the ToS element you mention: http://support.google.com/fiber/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answ...
That said, few startups should be hosting their own servers, no matter the speed of their internet connection. Everything else you do will be blazing fast though.
I always thought this was primarily because of bandwidth and scale issues. Removing the bandwidth issue leaves the scale issue, and that's just a matter of how far you're willing to go in your own home, isn't it?
I think that's the wrong view, though. Maybe what happens when people get that much bandwidth is, they will naturally start running more servers!
I can do all those things on my 10USD/month 20/20 mbit home net in Poland.
In one example I'm imagining a city council meeting, where anyone who just has the time to log in can take part. And then I realize that maybe this would lead to horrible popular ideas being more easily spread.
Obviously, really high quality audio, HD video, with multiple participants.
Then I'd like a bit more than that - panorama video so I can see all the surroundings in detail of where the other person is. Not just point audio, but a mesh of audio so I can move around in the space. All streamed to Google Glasses or similar.
And if that isn't enough, Kinnect-like 3D, so my body is scanned with depth as well.
Done well, so that tech geeks actually start to have their conferences online rather than in the flesh... This'll reduce carbon emissions, and mean people can spend more time with their families.
Will that use enough bandwidth?