Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals? Would love AI to do that.
Will the SEC decide to?
But, you also need DOJ that prosecutes rich guy white crime, so.
Yes, depending where the trades were based and their market participants' KYC rigor.
As the article mentions, the CFTC "is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy" [1]. If the "lots of Brent crude futures" the article mentioned traded on the Intercontinental Exchange [2], when we can almost certainly trace it back to at least some individuals.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious...
[2] https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data