Comment by topspin | Hacker News Reader

Comment by topspin | Hacker News Reader

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The F-35 case is interesting. Lockheed Martin can, given peak rates seen in 2025, produce a new F-35 approximately every 36 hours, as they fill orders for US allies arming themselves with F-35's. US pilot training facilities are brimming with foreign pilots. It's the most successful export fighter since the F-16 and F-4, and presently the only means US allies have to obtain operational stealth combat technology.

What that means for the US is this: if the US had to fight a conventional war with a near-peer military today, the US actually has the ability to replace stealth fighter losses. The program isn't some near-dormant, low-rate production deal that would take a year or more to ramp up: it's a operating line at full rate production that could conceivably build a US Navy squadron every ~15 days, plus a complete training and global logistics system, all on the front burner.

If there is any truth to Gen Bradley's "Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics" line, the F-35 is a major win for the US.

> Lockheed Martin can, given peak rates seen in 2025, produce a new F-35 approximately every 36 hours ... it's a operating line at full rate production that could conceivably build a US Navy squadron every ~15 days, plus a complete logistics and training system, all on the front burner.

That's amazing. I had no idea the US was still capable of things like that.

I wonder if there's a way to get close to that, for things that aren't new and don't have a lot of active orders. Like have all the equipment setup but idle at some facility, keep an assembly teams ready and trained, then cycle through each weapon an activate a couple of these dormant manufacturing programs (at random!) every year, almost as a drill. So there's the capability to spin up, say F-22 production quickly when needed.

Obviously it'd cost money. But it also costs a lot of money to have fighter jets when you're not actively fighting a way. Seems like manufacturing readiness would something an effective military would be smart to pay for.

"I had no idea the US was still capable of things like that."

It's more than just the US though. It's the demand from foreign customers that makes it possible. It's the careful balance between cost and capability that was achieved by the US and allies when it was designed.

Without those things, the program would peter out after the US filled its own demand, and allies went looking for cheaper solutions. The F-35 isn't exactly cheap, but allies can see the capability justifies the cost. Now, there are so many of them in operation that, even after the bulk of orders are filled in the years to come, attrition and upgrades will keep the line operating and healthy at some level, which fulfills the goal you have in mind.

Meanwhile, the F-35 equipped militaries of the Western world are trained to similar standards, operating similar and compatible equipment, and sharing the logistics burden. In actual conflict, those features are invaluable.

There are few peacetime US developed weapons programs with such a record. It seems the interval between them is 20-30 years.

Now let's talk about the 155mm artillery shells

Sure. Heavy industry. It's important. Maybe don't send it all to Asia because it's dirtier than software and finance.

I think people were surprised to suddenly have a lot of demand for those.

We do—our automotive assembly lines. F-22 is more of a deterrent. If we need more, it’s failed.

It took a while to reach full production rate for the F-35. Partly because the supply chain (mostly US based because of the Buy American Act) had to come up to speed[0]. But also because there were running-changes being made to the plane, necessitating changes to the production line to accommodate them.

The F-22 production tooling is supposedly in storage at Sierra Army Depot. Why there and not at the boneyard at Davis-Monthan is an interesting question[1]. Spooling production of the F-22 back up will take less time than originally, but still won't be quick (a secure factory floor large enough has to be found, workforce knowledge has been lost, adding upgrades, etc.)

[0] Scattered across as many congressional districts as possible.

[1] I was at Sierra in the 80's on TDY and it was all Army and Army civilians. A USAF guy like me really stood out.

> Lockheed Martin can, given peak rates seen in 2025, produce a new F-35 approximately every 36 hours

Until we run out of materials

https://mwi.westpoint.edu/minerals-magnets-and-military-capa...

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