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Comment by mrweasel | Hacker News Reader

Assuming that this is in any shape or form correct, why hasn't rationing started? Six weeks at normal flight capacity is an insane amount of fuel, rationing it out for transport of critical goods and travel, will stretch it for years. If the plan is to just burn through the existing stock I'd argue that someone is acting incredibly irresponsibly.

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From what perspective? The individual flight operators maximize their earnings by running as many flights as they can, and charging as much as they can. Individuals who need transportation also maximize their utility from the same thing.

Some flight operators are planning for shortages by canceling flights: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-feb...

Every business is prioritizing stocking up on goods they need already. They need transport to do that.

The cancellations are because of rising prices, that doesn't mean they can get fuel, just that the current price makes the destination unprofitable. (Technically this should free up some fuel).

But I was thinking from a political perspective, allowing airlines to just fly destinations that frankly aren't needed, like vacation hotspots, seems ill advised, if you truly expect to run out off fuel. The reality is that Europe won't run out of jet fuel, it's airlines can pay for the fuel it needs, for the destinations it requires, but prices will go up. Poorer countries will run out, because the fuel is worth more in Europe and will be redirected.

> allowing airlines to just fly destinations that frankly aren't needed

What exactly is a "needed" destination and who decides that? Who is going to shoulder the financial loss for banning airlines from flying to popular spots?

If you ban airlines, why not other industries too? Why not private individuals too?

See? It's not that easy

Yep I myself changed my holiday plans from Tokyo to a nice Greek villa. Because I know that ticket prices for Asian flights will skyrocket. That's how scarcity is dealt with: raising prices.

Long term the government will have to look into reshoring some refineries I suppose.

Perhaps rationing has already started? My coworker and his family received notice today that their flight to France was cancel. Part of the message said:

"The disruption is caused by extraordinary surge in oil prices followed by unpredictable fuel supply shortage constraints across the aviation industry outside our control. As a result, we are unable to operate this route in a responsible and sustainable manner."

It's not like Europe is actually running out of fuel. 20% of the world's oil passes through the strait of Hormuz, but closer to 10% of Europe's oil imports. They get a lot of their oil from Norway, the US, Libya, Kazakhstan, etc.

Losing that much oil hurts. But it's entirely in the realm of what market forces can deal with. As storages empty prices rise, which lowers demand. There's already reports of multiple airlines suspending some of their flights because they aren't economically viable right now

I think you are mistaking "oil" (crude oil) as a straight stand-in for jet fuel. The former is a raw material (one that has a lot of "flavors"), whereas the latter is one possible product from refinement of that raw material. It should be noted that not all refineries are setup to produce jet fuel, and not all crude oil is viable for making jet fuel. I don't know the details about Europe's mix on refineries an d viable crude oil supplies.

As it happens, about 75% of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Middle East (I don't immediately have numbers for what of that goes through the Persion Gulf). That percentage puts it outside of the range you can correct with market changes (other than most flights don't fly... that is pretty drastic).

Sorry... should have included the reference:

European aviation is particularly exposed to the shortage of jet fuel, relying heavily on imports from the Middle East. Around 75 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the region, making any prolonged disruption especially problematic for its aviation industry.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/jet-fuel-shortage-w...

As pointed out in the oil crisis article[0], the reduction that led to the 1970's oil shock was about 5%. Effectively eliminating 15% to 20% of global production capacity is going to be a pretty damn big deal.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

Rationing in Europe is hard because thanks to free travel it has to be done in all of Europe all at once otherwise people are just gonna go and shop where it's more available, causing problems for neighboring countries, and doing anything at a EU level is incredibly slow and full of bureaucratic rigmarole.

The EU is by its construction a trade harmonization organization, it's not built for acting quickly and dealing with crises.

I think that is a rather valid point.

I've also heard it used as an argument in a podcast with "armchair generals" (I believe it included an actual general, nvm) about the possible planning/intent behind the whole situation. That is, assuming it wasn't all just incompetence and/or secret self-enrichment backdoor deals between key players operating from the shadow. From what I remember (vaguely), it was argued that serious internal problems within the EU could be part of an agenda. I can't recall how that then would be exploited, beyond just causing chaos in Europe for the sake of it. Still, I could imagine that to be a goal in itself for some of the involved.

More than 6 weeks of refined product also tends to be hard to maintain - moisture, bacterial/fungal growths (really - especially in kerosene derived products), oxidation/gumming (usually more of a problem in lighter fractions like gasoline).

Even 6 month type stockpiles usually take special regular maintenance procedures.

The distribution of jet fuel is not uniform. Some regions are unlikely to experience shortages while others are already rationing. Global supply chains aren't perfectly elastic, shortages are a local phenomenon. Rationing in the US, for example, wouldn't make sense because physical shortages are unlikely to exist there; the US exports jet fuel and has a completely domestic supply chain. Market prices will increase but the product will physically be there.

An airline can only schedule flights if fuel is guaranteed to be available at both ends. If they fly their plane to a part of the world experiencing severe shortages, the plane may become stranded there because there isn't fuel to fly it back.

Because rationing isn't step one. Putting out a warning that rationing will be necessary if things don't change is step one.

Rationing causes serious problems. A warning in advance gives people and powers time to turn things around before rationing becomes necessary.

KLM cancelled 80 flights today

160 flights (31 points, 12 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47795872

Due to cost, not shortage.

Shortages tend to cause cost increases.

Is rationing really necessary when the price raises enough that people aren't flying anywhere anyway?

Only when the prices raise to the point that low demand leads to actual flight cancellations. The demand for fuel is much less flexible than the demand for tickets.

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