Is the tech recession over?

I don't really track USA places - so I can't comment on them.

Is this Joel on Software post another thinly veiled advertisement for their services? Yes.

I got three job inquiries last two days, from recruiters and: I got another request from a startup that I got an offer in October, that week that Sequoia send the RIP presentation. They had to withdraw the offer, b/c of a hiring freeze mandated by the board. It seems that they are hiring again, and contacted me if I was still available.

I am not, as I found a new job in a same size startup.

Basically, if you are really good, you will be able to find a job. I might take some time, but there is some hiring going on. The only thing is that there is a lot of people laid off, so there is a lot of competition out there, and some interviews will end up like an "american idol" contest, but be patient and don't get discouraged.

In another anecdote, mobile seems to be a field that is still hiring. A friend of mine was laid off in December, but he was able to find contracting work within 3-4 weeks.

I think this recession will probably drive some subpar talent out of the industry, which I think it is a good thing.

Many tech companies have been insulated as they were funded (therefore not relying on revenue for survival).

There will be no new funds for many of these companies - so they need revenue - and they have to achieve revenue in a contracting economy.

I had hoped we'd see an uptick in activity in H2 2009, but I fear it's going to 2010 or 2011 before we start to see real recovery - the history of the 1930s indicates it may be even later than that. Many economists are saying comparisons with 1930s are wrong, which could be true, but in the 1930s the economies outside the US were unaffected and exports to those economies dragged the US out of depression - this time it's global.

It's possible we will see some fake recoveries, some may last a year or so, but the problems this time are so vast it's going to take many years to heal.

These massive spending measures that are being put in place all have consequences and we've got to deal with those before we get back to stable growth.

Some companies, for instance those doing business apps that save money, will be counter cyclical and may do well. For the rest it's going to be hard times.

There's lots of startups here always hiring, and large government labs to fall back on.

http://joblighted.com/statistics

There were indeed more jobs posted in January 2009. Though probably much of this increase is cyclical. In two previous years there was the same pattern - a decline in December followed by an increase in January.

http://joblighted.com/img/jobs_Sep2006_Feb2009_monthly.png

http://joblighted.com/img/jobs_Sep2006_Feb2009_weekly.png

(Please note that I kept adding job sites, which could hide some of the decline in job postings).

Certain products may do well, though, if they look likely to save companies money. Maybe that's what happened to Joel.

If that were the case, Joel would have a financial incentive to claim that people were buying his software just as much today. I mean, especially if he were super savvy at marketing his software on his blog. hmm...

But here's the thing - we (the tech world) took a brutal recession in the early 2000s to shake off the excesses of the dot com bubble. Many people believe that Fed managed to avoid the dot com bubble reckoning by creating a new, and even more dangerous, bubble in housing.

It did seem that way. While hundreds of thousands of people (including good programmers) lost their jobs, housing prices kept climbing, and consumer spending kept humming along, even increasing.

So in some ways, I wonder if maybe the rest of the economy is experiencing the reckoning that tech has already been through.

I have trouble believing that high tech won't be negatively affected by the economic troubles, but it may be much better off than other sectors of the economy.

Companies like Fog Creek could actually do very well, because people buy their products to streamline processes and improve productivity. --Exactly what companies need when they lay people off or slow hiring.

While we're doing better than most other industries, we've still seen more jobs lost due to the economy than new jobs being posted. I do agree, though, that the really good people will generally still be able to find work, although not necessarily as quickly as they once would have.

So while this might be representative of the SaaS industry I strongly doubt that it would represent the tech situation as a whole.

Actually I think the tech sector is going to be slowly winding down for quite a while to come. There were lots of big contracts locked in before the recession hit, and that existing work is going be finished off over the next year without much to replace it.

Other tech companies in the area are hiring, though certainly not at the brisk rate they once were. The only active layoffs I've heard about are in the financial sector.