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And I think it's very likely that with improved methods you could get opus 4.6 level performance on a wrist watch in few years.

You needed supercomputer to win in chess until you didn't.

Currently local models performance in natural language is much better than any algorithm running on a super computer cluster just few years ago.

Yeah, but that's the current state of the art after decades of aggressive optimizations, there's no foreseeable future where we'll ever be able to cram several orders of magnitude more ram into a phone.

We already cram several orders of magnitude more flash storage into phone than RAM (e.g. my phone has 16 GB RAM but 1 TB storage); even now, with some smart coding, if you don't need all that data at the same time for random access at sub millisecond speed, it's hard to tell the difference.

Agreed. Apple is sells an iPhone Pro Max with 2 TB of storage.

but it doesn't have that much more flops than it did a couple of years ago.