Autonomy Is Real Now | Hacker News Reader

Autonomy Is Real Now

steelforfuel.substack.com

It's nice to read that machine autonomy is progressing so well.

However it only makes it sadder to see human autonomy reaching modern lows...

This is especially true within s/w development, where acceptance of external dependencies has reached pandemic proportions. Leaving many more systems vulnerable, not just to supply chain attack, but to the day to day risk that some mandatory system dependency becomes unavailable, for what ever reason (acquisition, bankruptcy, product line termination, etc).

When I think of autonomy, I think of individual human agency.

To see the word degraded to meaning cars that don't run over wheelchairs in the crosswalk, seems like some major loss has occurred.

The future isn't more autonomous cars driving on city streets. It's fewer cars on streets.

I truly believe massive gains in transit & micromobility especially when related to the green energy boom is the real game-changing story of our time.

What makes you think we're going to see massive gains in transit in the future?

You could combine both - autonomous cars to shuttle from the station to where you need to go, plus the other stuff.

I wonder if anyone has any incentive to make it so you can pay with cash like a vending machine. (I think some of biggest benefits could be for those who struggle to afford cars, but those folks don't always good payment options.)

I don’t see, see how there could be any incentive at all.

It’s not even possible to summon one without a phone/app.

separating identity from my credit card (so I can just pay cash) seems a worthwhile option.

I mean from the perspective of Waymo or the provider.

But would the extra complexity, hardware, maintenance and associated costs ever be worth it for very small minority of transactions that would only be able to be cash.

It comes with a bunch of extra problems as well especially around abuse.

Better off just implementing gift cards to be bought with cash. Or maybe that’s what op meant?

I wonder if the net benefit to society rests on the side of the autonomous vehicles (potentially safer roads) or retaining “driver” as a category of employed people (3 to 5% of the population in the US).

The roads will be safer. The streets though? Remains to be seen…

Also I calculated - the approximate worth of those Waymos sitting on that lot was likely upwards of $400M! It doesn't seem much compared to hyperscaler spending but it’s not chump change either. I believe they are going all in.

>The roads will be safer. The streets though? Remains to be seen…

What do you mean?

On one hand, injuries from vehicular accidents in the roadway may decline to AVs being generally safer. On the other, intentional violence due to unrest and unhappy jobless in "the streets" may limit or entirely offset those gains.

This.

Current estimate of the active fleet size is 3,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo#:~:text=As%20of%20March%...

may open up other opportunities due to people being more mobile. more commerce activity in general. I heavily dislike having to find parking or hiring a non waymo ride.

[2025]

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