Watch Mitt Romney's Facebook Likes Decrease in Real Time
disappearingromney.com
disappearingromney.com
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/201...
The summary is that in the aftermath of this election, Democrats and their allies are not just celebrating the fact that their preferred Presidential candidate won, but taking mean-spirited glee in the disappointment of Republicans - largely enabled by the preeminence of social media (for example, the "White People Mourning Romney" Tumblr).
The linked site is a pretty serious example of this phenomenon. The message behind it is essentially, "Ha ha, look how all the Republicans are dissociating themselves from Romney since he didn't win! What losers!"
[1] http://www.statisticbrain.com/presidential-election-voter-st...
Barack Obama 62,088,847 US Population: 311,591,917
(source google/AP/US Census Bureau)
Same on the local level in Texas (where I lived for some years), with partisans actually seeming happier about the TX Democrats' misfortunes than the TX GOP's success.
Politics is the last area where hate (of the other party) is socially acceptable.
It is actually hate. It's a controlled hate. Sort of like feelings you get when watching a movie.
I disagree. Though sports fans have moments when they feel intense hatred for the other team, almost every fan knows that at the end of the day, it's just a game. They know that -- just like their team -- their opponent was just trying to win as a matter of pride.
The consequences of political contests are much more serious, which leads many political supporters to actually hate the other side. They don't see politics as a game; they see it as an idealogical war that directly affects their quality of life. Many actually think that politicians they don't agree with and their supporters are evil. If you want proof of this difference, just look at the comments on articles about sports rivalries and compare them to comments on articles about divisive political issues.
However, I'd guess that if the winning team of a sporting event was allowed to modify the rulebook for all future games, it would begin to look a lot more like politics over time.
Which I think goes to show that there are unreasonable people on both sides of the aisle.
The stereotypical liberal as seen by the stereotypical conservative, however, is a complete fantasy - in line with the fantasy that Romney had a chance of winning the election.
Coming from a country where self-deprecating humor is considered the mean, I must say that this didn't even remotely think "What losers!" about republicans.
Come to think of it, my first thought was "silly Americans", a thought aimed at the people that "liked" someone they thought might end up in office, and then un-liked him as soon as that didn't happen. I guess there's two kinds of shallow at work there: - Mine, for thinking "silly Americans" when it's only a portion of them - Theirs, for liking someone because he's popular
In the end, the dislikes say more about how people use Facebook (or maybe, social media in general) than about Republicans.
Finally, isn't it amazing what we can learn about human behavior with just a simple graph?
Nothing wrong.
What I have seen, though, is a lot of pathetic doom-and-gloom and sky-is-falling idiocy from the right wing -- people crying about how "my country is done for" and other such stupidity.
This has been my experience.
What's really nasty is that it's seemingly unavoidable.
I don't subscribe to political feeds, but folks like this lovely lady [1] will find ways to spread their vitriol to anything, even an exoplanet discovery [2].
Not all conservatives are alike ... just because we have some looneys that vote the same way we do, does not make them our ally or mean that we agree with them. I'd imagine that the same is true on the left as well!
However, this page really is not compelling to me, because these graphs are such a prime example of a blatant misuse of vertical scale. The y axis currently ranges from 12,046,000 to 12,050,000, which makes the decrease look like a sharp 45° falloff, when in fact it's fallen by 0.02% during the time shown. The numbers are the same to within four significant digits. So what is this supposed to be telling me?
Subsequent to this was the Presidential Election of 2000. Widely viewed by the Left as illegally stolen by the monied interests of the GOP putting the importance of victory over the legitimacy of their power. This President presided over the worst decade in American history since the 1930's, and he and his party (and their supporters) are widely blamed by the Left for the clusterfuck the world found itself in circa 2008.
Less than four years later, the GOP seems to have suffered from amnesia. They didn't seem to grasp that most of the problems they railed against Obama for not having fixed in four years were the result of their own bright ideas being put into practice over the preceding eight.
Certainly, Obama screwed up by trying to work with the GOP when he had the advantage in Congress. After two years of GOP obstruction, the midterms handed them enough of Congress to see that absolutely nothing of importance to the President (even if those things also important to everyone else) ever saw the light of day.
Whether or not these views are accurate, I think this is the mindset from which many on the Left are lashing out at the Right.
I keep imagining Ken Burns ominously reciting Facebook Like figures, or trending Twitter hashtags, in addition to statistics on how many bombs were dropped in Iraq: "As Romney exited the political arena, public awareness of how close he came to the presidency seemed to erode, at a rate of over 550 likes-per-hour, he soon faded into the sunset of the American political landscape ...".
Obviously this is an exceedingly simple example, akin to the first steps in distributed computing like a Wikipedia wordcount, but I would love to see more sophisticated historical analyses in the near future.
That's not necessarily the case. More likely they just don't want updates anymore.
I don't think any of his supporters are particularly ashamed of supporting him.
Potentially, but I have two concerns about this. First, I'm not familiar with the facebook api, but does it does it provide a way to determine an account's like count retrospectively? Or does this kind of analysis rely on scraping pages over the time-period of the analysis? Put it another way, could a historian in twenty years time reproduce this data, or does it have to be collected now because no historically useful record is kept? I suspect that online sources actually leave much less historically useful data than, say, newspapers on microfiche, despite online data being much easier to analyse.
And secondly, what happens to the data if/when facebook or twitter or google disappear or merge or change massively. As commercial entities, none of them are in the historical data business for anything other than short-term commercial gain. They have no obligation to the more distant future.
I wonder what historians think about everything going digital?
Look at the scale, against a base number of 12M+ facebook likes, losing hundreds is a rounding error. The OP seems to be getting the slant on his graph by manipulating it in rather grotesque ways.
P.S. Yes, people seem to be dissociating themselves from the Romney loss (and the man himself) in alarming numbers, none more so than within his party. But this does not seem to be a valid measure.
The election is over, enough with the gloating.
Yes.
Losing a presidential campaign is going to prime the media and individuals to report about the team's failings and those of the candidate. Many criticisms are going to be valid. Likewise, Obama's campaigners will have successes that will be reported on. So I think we'd be seeing the opposite articles if the outcome of the election was different.
For this reason, its a very interesting election to study and analyze from a technology perspective. E.g. has the internet really succeeded in disseminating data and viewpoints effectively, or has it made our "bubble walls" more rigid. What is the role of fact checking and factual reporting when it comes to the media, has technology made getting to the truth easier or harder?
Very interesting for the hackers on this site...
Also, in discussing this election, its unavoidable that Romney is painted in a bad light. He lost after a spirited campaign that was alas never as close as he and his team portrayed it to be.
1. You like it.
2. You understand that “likes” are used by advertisers, distributors, etc., to track brand popularity, so you clicked like to support something that you might not personally like. (I’ve done this with, for example, friends’ projects that are of no actual interest to me.)
3. You want to see its updates. (I have a leftist friend who likes to keep an eye on the right wing and “liked” Romney on Facebook for exactly this reason, even though it’s essentially a “dislike”.)
There are probably a couple others. Peer pressure, for example? Besides which, I think it’s fair to withdraw a like from something if you believe it’s outlived its usefulness. If I’d “liked” a ballot measure that failed to pass, for example, I don’t think it would be in any way dishonorable to stop following it now, even if I still completely supported its aims.
Now if only he was called Nike Romney and had a logo like the Nike sign, he may of done exactly the same.
Alternatively, you have the attention and the publicity, you could turn this into an a revenue producing product, sticking an ad somewhere on the page, and then providing it like a YTMND kind of "fill in the blank" system. At the very least, you could use the Romney thing as a springboard for a viral entry.
At the bottom, stick a "Make a graph for any project" link and commence.
At the very least, this could net you a decent handful of cash for minimal work, and, presumably, you already have the attention. Now take advantage of it before the spotlight moves off you.
Disclaimer: I say all this, not as a marketing type, but just as a geek who's run his own stuff for years, and I see a possibility to make a couple extra bucks with this well done implementation. Maybe it'd turn out to be a waste of time, maybe it'd score you some pizza and beer money every week, or maybe it'd serve as your entry as a "Social analytics" company or whatever. Either way, I think it's worth exploring.
It's in the source code using the google Chart api [https://developers.google.com/chart/interactive/docs/index]
<script type="text/javascript" src="http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.6.4/jquery.min.js"></script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.google.com/jsapi"></script>
<script type="text/javascript">
// Load the Visualization API and the piechart package.
google.load('visualization', '1.0', {'packages':['corechart']});
// Set a callback to run when the Google Visualization API is loaded.
google.setOnLoadCallback(init);
// Callback that creates and populates a data table,
// instantiates the pie chart, passes in the data and
// draws it.
function drawRealtime() {
var data = google.visualization.arrayToDataTable(headings.concat(likes));
var options = {
title: 'Realtime Like Count For Mitt Romney',
hAxis : {textColor: '#ffffff'},
colors: ['red','#004411'],
legend: {position: 'none'}
};
var chart = new google.visualization.LineChart(document.getElementById('realtime'));
chart.draw(data, options);
}
function drawHistoric() {
var data = google.visualization.arrayToDataTable(headings.concat([['1:59pm',12049076],['2:16pm',12048948],['2:30pm',12048820],['2:45pm',12048681],['3:00pm',12048559],['3:15pm',12048421],['3:30pm',12048297],['3:45pm',12048182],['4:00pm',12048077],['4:15pm',12047946],['4:30pm',12047807],['4:45pm',12047660],['5:00pm',12047509],['5:15pm',12047380],['5:30pm',12047247],['5:45pm',12047105],['6:00pm',12046942]]));
var options = {
title: 'Recent Like Count For Mitt Romney',
legend: {position: 'none'}
};
var chart = new google.visualization.LineChart(document.getElementById('historic'));
chart.draw(data, options);
}
var headings = [['Time','Likes']];
var likes = [];
console.log(headings.concat(likes));
window.setInterval(fadeAway,1000);
function init() {
drawHistoric();
window.setInterval(fetchLikes,1000);
}
var start = 0;
function fetchLikes() {
$.getJSON('https://graph.facebook.com/mittromney?fields=likes',function(data){
console.log(data.likes);
if(likes.length==0) { data.likes+=10; start=data.likes; } else {
$("#count").text("-"+(start-data.likes));
}
likes.push([new Date().getTime(),data.likes]);
drawRealtime();
});
}
function fadeAway() {
var opa = $("#romney").css('opacity');
$("#romney").css('opacity',(opa==0 ? 0 : opa-0.02));
}
</script>
It's all in the fetchLikes() that use the JSON api of the facebook graph.
It's launched through this : window.setInterval(fetchLikes,1000);After the graph API has been loaded.
Also here: http://private.woutervdb.com/romney/
and obama: http://private.woutervdb.com/obama/
Careful, there: http://xkcd.com/605/
Also, Obama's second term doesn't start until January 20, Romney will have been long forgotten by then.
Of course, I didn't like his page, but I'm probably not that atypical. A lot of people use facebook once in a great while and make almost no effort to keep their page up to date, reflective of current friends, etc.
The decay looks linear at a glance, but I'd expect it to be exponential on a larger time scale. Time will tell :)
Edit: wanna bet?
Take the number of likes Romney started with as the election was called. [Number may not be available, estimate if not possible to recall exact.] Then, fade the Romney image out by setting image opacity as a percentage, currentLikes/peakLikes to give the image a "Back to the Future"-esque fade effect.
I say this as I was going to remove him the other day and thought I'd leave it a month or two and see if this social media embrasment was mearly a way to get into peoples pants, no I mean votes. So I left him, he gave a good acceptance of the results speech and with that be intersting on what he does now out of curiosity and my weird humour angle if nothing else.
For example, the fact that somebody is willing to manipulate a statistic is information in itself, and could be correlated (positively or negatively) to an outcome.
Part of working with big data is analysing all your signals coming in, and being able to determine which are useful and which aren't.
Social media may be a noisy, biased signal, but I doubt it is so noisy, or so biased, that no useful information can be obtained from it.
It's a political contest, someone has to lose. Let's move on.
moinnadeem.com/romneylikes