As bitcoin is quite traceable I don't see how this works if you're trying to avoid sanctions. For Iran it probably doesn't matter but for the vessel owners it probably does.
Yes, from sanctions perspective, the vessel owners seem to have more exposure than Iran -- as crazy as it sounds on the surface.
Not over lightning. Even on-chain, trustless coin swaps (or cross-chain swaps) can be made with different counterparties all over the world where transaction details are all held off-chain (pay in ethereum and receive on bitcoin for example).
Business idea - Iran Bitcoin fee intermediary. Realistically the CIA will handle this for US companies and maybe allies until they figure something out.
Didn't Tornado Cash get un-sanctioned recently? Can't you just use that?
One of Iran's demand for a peace agreement is the removal of all sanctions.
Agreed, but I wonder it if matters in practice. It's not like one can boycott bitcoins by serial number or something, is it?