That feels like a very complex way of looking at it. Another way would be to say “potentially profit seeking companies have an incentive to oversell products even if they’re good”.
The Claude Code leak revealed that Anthropic runs Claude-operated bots on the internet. One should be very cautious in getting swept up in the fund-raising process if they are not seeing first-hand the fruition of all of the flattering claims being presented by strangers on the internet.
There's a pretty big difference between "We predict in X time frame our model will be capable of Y" and "Our model did Y."
This is like watching someone measure the size of an object and saying "I don't believe you because you guessed it was X before you pulled out your tape measure."