>It is really hard for me to see how any of this has made the IRGC more stable in the long run.

It's not hard for me to see. It's very similar to the situation in Ukraine. They have suffered losses but I can only imagine that their morale and confidence is through the roof. Conversely, the population must feel that there is no hope of getting rid of them. The cavalry sounded the horns but mostly rode into the river.

>Disruption to global fossil fuel supply chains was also a goal of this war

..what?