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Bubble1296

What about the other Middle East countries involved such as the UAE and what about Europe?

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Europe, thankfully, stayed out of this mess. Some countries even rejected to even give logistical support to the US.

I wonder if uninvolved nations will also be required to pay the safe passage fees.

Aside from Iranian allies, it seems likely.

So this would have the downstream effect of further degrading international sentiment towards US military operations in the future.

> wonder if uninvolved nations will also be required to pay the safe passage fees

If Iran is smart (and Iran gets the fees, which remains a big if) they would exempt Spain.

Not really practical to exempt Spain even if they wanted to, with Spain being within the EU and therefore able to freely move goods and services to other EU nations.

> with Spain being within the EU and therefore able to freely move goods and services to other EU nations

Fair enough. Spain gets N free tankers a month, with N calibrated to Spanish consumption.

and some (most?) countries offered support...?

Spain has held a firm line, but even others such as UK/FR have allowed use of facilities or engaged their air craft carriers or facilitated US movements.

> Europe, thankfully, stayed out of this mess

Cyprus/UK [0] faced attempted strikes; the UK is running defensive sorties for the UAE [1], Qatar [2], and Iraq [3]; and British bases in Oman and the UAE were struck [4]. France has done similar actions as well [5]. The UK and France have mutual defense pacts across the Gulf as well which they need to maintain.

Additionally, Ukraine has now begun providing defensive capabilities to the Gulf States, which Iran argues makes it an active combatant [6]. By this precedent the UK and France are also active combatants against Iran.

The reality is, the Iran War and the Ukraine War are tied to the hip. If defending Ukraine against Russian drone strikes conducted by Iranian ground troops [7] and using Iranian technology [8] is critical to European security, then ending Iran's tactical support is critical as well.

Ironically, this is probably great news for Ukraine. Russia's geoint support for Iran [9] has made it easier for my peers still on the Hill to make a case to double down and enhance American support for Ukraine, as well as pulling Gulf States who were previously neutral to supporting Ukraine as well [10].

This is also why Ukraine is calling out Russian disinfo ops about the war [11]. Iran has doubled down on similar information warfare [12] and hybrid [13] operations in the UK and Mainland Europe

Frankly, we need to call a spade a spade - the Ukraine War and Iran War have merged into a single transnational war.

If you support Ukraine you cannot support Iran, and this is Ukraine's stance as well [14][15][16][17][18].

[0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_drone_strikes_on_Akrotiri...

[1] - https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/uk-warplanes-do...

[2] - https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/is-uk-war-iran-n...

[3] - https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/trump-starmer-s...

[4] - https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/will-could-uk-go...

[5] - https://www.politico.eu/article/france-sends-anti-missile-an...

[6] - https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72965

[7] - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/24/iranian-milita...

[8] - https://jamestown.org/dirty-business-the-russian-iranian-str...

[9] - https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2040716892650803610

[10] - https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-deepens-gulf-securit...

[11] - https://english.nv.ua/nation/moscow-panics-as-ukraine-signs-...

[12] - https://www.thetimes.com/uk/social-media/article/iran-war-fa...

[13] - https://www.ft.com/content/adc3e954-5928-471b-b7f2-e4385bbca...

[14] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/10/8015528/

[15] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/06/15/7517248/

[16] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/20/7381481/

[17] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/06/7375231/

[18] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403733/

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Edit: can't reply

> There is no particular reason to assume that the side you take in one conflict should have an impact on your stance toward another conflict

What you are describing is compartmentalization - something which you posited is false [0]

If Qatar and UAE's dual use infrastructure is within the rights of Iran to strike despite both having dealings with both Iran and the US and if Ukraine can be treated as a combatant by Iran [1], then this precedent holds for all of Iran given how they have aided and abetted Russia in Ukraine.

With the precedent Iran set against Qatar, compartmentalization no longer holds. And Ukraine's stance is that Iran is a terror state and an enemy of Ukraine [2], so frankly if you stand with Ukraine you also have to stand against Iran.

> Surely that has to be the default position. They all have a right to defend themselves and a valid claim for reparations.

Iran has been providing Russia ballistic missiles [3], drones [4], artillery [5], boots on the ground [6], ammunition [7], and other support against Ukraine.

If Iran deserves reparations from the US, then Ukraine deserves reparations from Iran. Yet Iran has doubled down in opposing Ukraine [1].

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47623496

[1] - https://english.nv.ua/amp/iran-threatens-ukraine-after-accus...

[2] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/20/7381481/

[3] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/07/7375314/

[4] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/03/7374835/

[5] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/08/7392485/

[6] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/17/7389742/

[7] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/05/7405318/

The UK's involvement is minimal and we do not see ourselves part of this war / nor want to be part of it.

And FYI I live in the UK, so I'm better placed to comment than you listing a bunch of links.

It doesn't matter what you think.

The RAF is still conducting defensive military operations in the Gulf [0][1] which Iran now treats as active combat against Iran.

[0] - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrmg6x2rgxo

[1] - https://www.gov.uk/government/news/raf-personnel-become-firs...

This is was a really insightful read, thank you! Also, what are ya'll thoughts about Canada and their refusal to engage in the Middle East?

Frankly, Canada does not have the power projection capabilities needed for West Asia.

That said, Canada is best served protecting the Arctic, North Atlantic, and the North Pacific, all of which now face increased pressure from Russia and China, and threaten much of North America, Northern Europe, and Northern Asia.

This is also the stance of the Government of Canada [0][1]

[0] - https://international.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/corporate/...

[1] - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-arctic-military-exerci...

Also, another question: Do you think that World War III or something close to a global conflict will start as you mentioned that the Ukrainian-Russo War and the Iran War "have merged into a single transnational war"?

My stance is the same as Fiona Hill (former Senior Director for Europe and Russia in the US NSC and now a Defence Advisor for the Starmer administration) [0] as well as Zelensky [1].

[0] - https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410

[1] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgj9p15y87o

Look, if you continue down that road to GCC countries engaging Iran, then you have a multiparty nuclear armed conflict with combatants stretching from Europe to the Chinese border.

At that point it really does sound like ww3 started from the same causes as ww1 - nobody will win, nobody will know why they are fighting, and most of the fighting will be drones being slung over trenches.

> At that point it really does sound like ww3 started from the same causes as ww1

My stance on this is the same as Fiona Hill's [0] and Zelensky's [1].

I'd argue the date this began was 24th February 2022 [2]

[0] - https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410

[1] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgj9p15y87o

[2] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60503037

> At that point it really does sound like ww3 started from the same causes as ww1 - nobody will win, nobody will no why they are fighting, and most of the fighting will be drones being slung over trenches.

Name me one war of aggression that ended up being a long term win for the aggressor.

Us revolutionary war. China taking Tibet. US Mexican war.

> If you support Ukraine you cannot support Iran, and this is Ukraine's stance as well

The three countries that have been attacked, including civilian infrastructure, are Ukraine, Lebanon and Iran

Surely that has to be the default position. They all have a right to defend themselves and a valid claim for reparations.

The first time I saw a graph describing relationships between various factions in the Middle East was probably in the late 90s. I remember being amused by it. It turns out that if you are a region full of conflicts, the ally of your ally is often your enemy.

On the other hand, it should have been obvious. Real-world relationships are not transitive.

There is no particular reason to assume that the side you take in one conflict should have an impact on your stance toward another conflict. At least if you are not some kind of a rationalist who values logical consistency over practical implications.

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