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Air to water heat pumps (which usually are used in Germany) should be quite cheap nowadays. Maybe they tried overcharging you or a significant rework was required?

Obviously that's impossible to answer without knowing your specific situation, nevermind even knowing which country you are speaking of. Heat pump prices aren't high here, heat pumps are just aircons with some extra cheap parts after all.

I was thinking in general. But specifically: I'm in Croatia (so prices should not be that far off from German ones - equipment perhaps more costly but manual work a bit cheaper) and was quoted (two years ago) for a €15k total installation cost for the size I needed, which would be 15-20 years' worth of my natural gas usage.

Even at zero electricity host (I have rooftop solar), the investment didn't make a lot of sense at the time, assuming the costs would be falling in the next few years.

I just have been quoted 40k for an installation. So, no.