Haven't seen a jump this large since I don't even know, years?
Too bad they are not releasing it anytime soon (there is no need as they are still currently the leader).
I don’t think predictions, but they did a great call until now.
“My vibes don’t match a lot of the traditional A.I.-safety stuff,” Altman said. He insisted that he continued to prioritize these matters, but when pressed for specifics he was vague: “We still will run safety projects, or at least safety-adjacent projects.” When we asked to interview researchers at the company who were working on existential safety—the kinds of issues that could mean, as Altman once put it, “lights-out for all of us”—an OpenAI representative seemed confused. “What do you mean by ‘existential safety’?” he replied. “That’s not, like, a thing.”
>Please provide the definition of Existential Safety.
I read:
>Are you mentally stable? Our product would never hurt humanity--how could any language model?
> We study a novel language model architecture that is capable of scaling test-time computation by implicitly reasoning in latent space. Our model works by iterating a recurrent block, thereby unrolling to arbitrary depth at test-time. This stands in contrast to mainstream reasoning models that scale up compute by producing more tokens. Unlike approaches based on chain-of-thought, our approach does not require any specialized training data, can work with small context windows, and can capture types of reasoning that are not easily represented in words. We scale a proof-of-concept model to 3.5 billion parameters and 800 billion tokens. We show that the resulting model can improve its performance on reasoning benchmarks, sometimes dramatically, up to a computation load equivalent to 50 billion parameters.
If I was VP of Unethical Business Strategy at OpenAI or Anthropic, the first thing I'd do is put in place an automated system which flags accounts, prompts, IPs, and usage patterns associated with these benchmarks and direct their usage to a dedicated compute pool which wouldn't be affected by these changes.
Error with 91.3% = 8.7%
Error with 94.5% = 5.5%
Error reduction = 8.7% - 5.5% = 3.2%
I get the security aspect, but if we've hit that point any reasonably sophisticated model past this point will be able to do the damage they claim it can do. They might as well be telling us they're closing up shop for consumer models.
They should just say they'll never release a model of this caliber to the public at this point and say out loud we'll only get gimped versions.
Not sure how this is consistent with "One private company gatekeeping access to revolutionary technology"?
You have to decode feel-good words into the concrete policy. The EAs believe that the state should prohibit entities not aligned with their philosophy to develop AIs beyond a certain power level.
This is already happening to some degree, GPT 5.3 Codex's security capabilities were given exclusively to those who were approved for a "Trusted Access" programme.
They actually beat Apple A series to become the first phone to use the TSMC N7 node.
And businesses from these other countries would happily switch to Chinese. From security perspective both Chinese and US espionage is equally bad, so why care if it all comes down to money and performance.
There is no real barrier to a customer of Anthropic adopting a competing model in the future. All it takes is a big tech company deciding it’s worth it to train one.
On the other hand, Visa/Mastercard have a lot of lock-in due to consumers only wanting to get a card that’s accepted everywhere, and merchants not bothering to support a new type of card that no consumer has. There’s a major chicken and egg problem to overcome there.
MC/Visa duopoly is an example of lock-in via network effects. Not sure that that applies to a product that isn't affected by how many other people are running it.
Rent-seeking of old was a ground rent, monies paid for the land without considering the building that was on it.
Residential rents today often have implied warrants because of modern law, so your landlord is essentially selling you a service at a particular location.
However, I’m tempted to compare to GitHub: if I join a new company, I will ask to be included to their GitHub account without hesitation. I couldn’t possibly imagine they wouldn’t have one. What makes the cost of that subscription reasonable is not just GitHub’s fear a crowd with pitchforks showing to their office, by also the fact that a possible answer to my non-question might be “Oh, we actually use GitLab.”
If Anthropic is as good as they say, it seems fairly doable to use the service to build something comparable: poach a few disgruntled employees, leverage the promise to undercut a many-trillion-dollar company to be a many-billion dollar company to get investors excited.
I’m sure the founders of Anthropic will have more money than they could possibly spend in ten lifetimes, but I can’t imagine there wouldn’t be some competition. Maybe this time it’s different, but I can’t see how.
you have 2 labs at the forefront (Anthropic/OpenAI), Google closely behind, xAI/Meta/half a dozen chinese companies all within 6-12 months. There is plenty of competition and price of equally intelligent tokens rapidly drop whenever a new intelligence level is achieved.
Unless the leading company uses a model to nefariously take over or neutralize another company, I don't really see a monopoly happening in the next 3 years.
I was focusing on a theoretical dynamic analysis of competition (Would a monopoly make having a competitor easier or harder?) but you are right: practically, there are many players, and they are diverse enough in their values and interest to allow collusion.
We could be wrong: each of those could give birth to as many Basilisks (not sure I have a better name for those conscious, invisible, omni-present, self-serving monsters that so many people imagine will emerge) that coordinate and maintain collusion somehow, but classic economics (complementarity, competition, etc.) points at disruption and lowering costs.
Not only that, but open-weight and fully open-source models are also a thing, and not that far behind.
Rent seeking isn't about whether the product has value or not, but about what's extracted in exchage for that value, and whether competition, lack of monopoly, lack of lock in, etc. keeps it realistic.
True, but it's also true that the returns from throwing money to the problem are diminishing. Unless one of those big players invents a new, propriatery paradigm, the gap between a SOTA model and an open model that runs on consumer hardware will narrow in the next 5 years.
Also eventually these WEIGHTS will leak. You can’t have the world’s most valuable data that can just be copied to a hard drive stay in the bottle forever, even if it’s worth a billion dollars. Somehow, some way, that genie’s going to get out, be it by some spiteful employee with nothing to lose, some state actor, or just a fuck up of epic proportions.
You should be more concerned about killer AI than rent seeking by OpenAI and Anthropic. AI evolving to the point of losing control is what scientists and researchers have predicted for years; they didn’t think it would happen this quickly but here we are.
This market is hyper competitive; the models from China and other labs are just a level or two below the frontier labs.
> They should just say they'll never release a model of this caliber to the public at this point and say out loud we'll only get gimped
Duh, this was fucking obvious from the start. The only people saying otherwise were zealots who needed a quick line to dismiss legitimate concerns.
I read it like I always read the GPT-2 announcement no matter what others say: It's *not* being called "too dangerous to ever release", but rather "we need to be mindful, knowing perfectly well that other AI companies can replicate this imminently".
The important corps (so presumably including the Linux Foundation, bigger banks and power stations, and quite possibly excluding x.com) will get access now, and some other LLM which is just as capable will give it to everyone in 3 months time at which point there's no benefit to Anthropic keeping it off-limits.
That’s not going to happen. If you recall, OpenAI didn’t release a model a few years ago because they felt it was too dangerous.
Anthropic is giving the industry a heads up and time to patch their software.
They said there are exploitable vulnerabilities in every major operating system.
But in 6 months every frontier model will be able to do the same things. So Anthropic doesn’t have the luxury of not shipping their best models. But they also have to be responsible as well.