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Comment by slyall | Hacker News Reader

The problem is that even if the US elects some nice centrist democrats for the 14 years every country is going to be thinking "What if they elect Trump v2?"

I mean the US already re-elected him after the first time so it wasn't a one off. US allies are already increasing defense spending and diversifying supply chains (especially for weapons) away from the US.

Would you bet the safety of your country on the US being stable going forward?

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> problem is that even if the US elects some nice centrist democrats for the 14 years every country is going to be thinking "What if they elect Trump v2?"

Nobody actually does this outside opinion pages. Like, Argentina has defaulted on its debt nine times. It still finds lenders. Similarly, an America that has stabilised its foreign policy still represents a military superpower and consumer dynamo that would be hard for any rational leader to pass up aligning with.

There is a difference between "aligning with" and "trusting with your life"

> There is a difference between "aligning with" and "trusting with your life"

Practically? In a germane context? I don't think that delineation exists in geopolitics.

Every U.S. ally under its nuclear umbrella trusts its life with D.C. Same with NATO and AUKUS and other defensive partnerships.

Counterpoint: Japan committed some war crimes back in the 40s, and almost a century later, a lot of East Asians still think maybe Japan shouldn't have a regular military that can project its power. And that includes a large portion of Japanese citizens themselves.

> Japan committed some war crimes back in the 40s, and almost a century later, a lot of East Asians still think maybe Japan shouldn't have a regular military that can project its power

I'd actually say that's a decent corollary versus counterpoint. The folks you attack will hate you. Regardless of whether you genuinely change. But we aren't directly attacking our allies right now. The folks who weren't directly war crimed by Japan, e.g. South Asia, have moved along just fine.

Maybe the attacks on allies aren't being done with bombs but the attacks are landing anyway and the hate is growing too.

It's not like America was super popular before all of this, it was more tolerated then celebrated. This very large straw broke the camel's back and everyone is working on moving away and after that's done, why come back?

We officially threatened to invade Greenland (and therefore the EU) and Canada. The former we threatened again, what, two days ago?

Not to mention the tariffs against our allies we levied. Or the fact we personally insult them from our highest office WRT things like calling their dead service members cowards.

They're not going to just forget how the US population and half it's legislative body just... Doesn't care at all. Will just let all of this happen.

We have become an apathetic, unserious people.

"a lot of East Asians" if you exclude China and those on the far left end of the political spectrum, you have the rest who adore Japan.

Unfortunately the anti-Japanese folks are the loudest in the room and loves to manipulate online opinions that that is the mainstream consensus.

They don't pause to ask, who benefits from this manufactured crisis that is aimed at driving a wedge between Korea and Japan in particular, both close US allies.

America will be to military powers what Argentina is to economies is not exactly a bright prospect for the future.

This is unlikely. Like, the current generation of European leaders can't imagine a world without the US. The next generation will feel very differently.

Personally, I find this depressing but I don't see the US polity as being a reliable partner for at least a generation. Definite Britain after Suez vibes right now.

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