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In the case of Iraq, they lied on purpose to support the invasion. In the case of Iran, Trump just ignored the intelligence. I do think the intelligence community is capable. For example, they warned of the Russian invasion weeks before it happened when all other European countries said it wouldn’t.

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> all other European countries said it wouldn’t

This is false, France made a misstep and even fired the head of French military intelligence because of the failure to predict the invasion and Germany was also notably skeptical. Other countries like UK, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania were on board that the invasion was going to happen.

On the Strait of Hormuz and surrounds they were capable.

Not always the case though: https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/98-672.html

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