Actually the most accurate 2012 election pundit was Drew Linzer (http://votamatic.org/). Provided Florida goes Obama's way, he correctly predicted the electoral college - Obama 332, Romney 206.
Edit: The confusion is probably that Silver was reporting the average electoral split as his prediction, when the mode is more important in what you're talking about. His average was almost never a number that was actually possible, since he was quoting them to the nearest 1/10th of a vote, so its kind of unfair to punish him for not getting it exactly right.