Comment by citrin_ru | Hacker News Reader

Comment by citrin_ru | Hacker News Reader

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> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine

Population size is relevant but not the most important factor. Russia has 146,000,000, more than 4x than Ukraine. It doesn't guarantee that Russia will win the war.

> On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles.

Ukraine also had Bayraktar TB2 overhead which distracted Moskva's crew and provided targeting information. Russia probably didn't sent a fighter to down it because skies around Ukraine are contested. Skies not only around but over Iran are not reallty contested. Having said that Iran could sink an american ship if the navy will become complaicent and will assume there are no threats.

> The size of Iran means that knocking out drone and missile production for long won't work. Russia has been trying to do that to Ukraine for years now.

Russia cannot fly planes over Ukranian territory. The US can fly not only F-35 but even B-52. That's a big difference. The only thing which could prevent the US from knowking out missile and drone production is insufficient intellegence.

Russia is the aggressor, Iran is a defender. That’s a huge difference.

>The US can fly not only F-35 but even B-52

There is, at this point in time, literally 0 evidence B-52s are flying over Iran with JDAMs. Every single photo we saw of B-52s literally shows them with AGM-158, which means they are launching outside Iran aerospace.

The biggest evidence for B-52s not flying over Iran is that there have still not been any losses. Go look at attrition rates in Linebacker 2 for comparison.

OSINTechinical literally had one yesterday

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2038625975332692466

The linked tweet says this:

> USAF B-52H refueling from a KC-135 tanker on its way to strike Iran.

with emphasis on "on its way", so not "over" Iran. So not sure your link proves your original point (which, if I understood right, was that these Americans are flying these bombers over Iran itself).

It's also telling that the Americans haven't managed to gain their much desired air supremacy, lots of Dohuet fanboys in the US Military, hopefully this war will bring their Air Power ambitions a notch or two down (even though I have my doubts).

Gee, you guys really couldn’t infer what the picture means and had to rely on words? The B-52 is a high-altitude aircraft, a truck-mounted SAM couldn’t hit it, you’d need at least something like a Pantsir(Buk is more realistic, but Pantsir had hit airliner). It implies the US has combat air patrol in the area, ready to conduct SEAD/DEAD while B52 dumps its short range JDAM.

There is literally nothing in this image suggesting they are flying over Iran with this loadout except the account just saying it.

GBU-38 JDAM has very short range.

Where is the actual OSINT though? No geolocation where the refueling is taking place, no timestamp on photo, no suggestion where the bomb is dropped.

By your logic an OSINT account can show a picture of a SU-34 in the air with 4 UMPK bombs, write "On its way to Odessa" and people will think Russia has air supremacy over Odessa.

Dude, the geolocation and sources are all in the comment. CENTCOM posted this picture, you’re better off spending your effort questioning them.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. We know that Russian air force is actively using gliding bombs to attack objects on the front line while flying over the territory controlled by Russia. One would need strong evidence to convince us that they have started to use gliding bombs differently.

The US on other hand is flying over the Iran for a month so the claim that they started to use B-52 in addition to smaller jets is not extraordinary. It would be strange to deploy B-52 with GBU only to strike something on/near the Iranian border (where there are not many targets which would justify GBU usage) so it's a logical conclusion from the posted photo that B-52 can fly over the Iran (at altitude beyond MANPADS reach).

...also, Germany has 84,000,000 people, so definitely not half of Iran.

> Having said that Iran could sink an american ship if the navy will become complaicent and will assume there are no threats.

Also, this is an election year in the US, and the war is already hugely unpopular, so despite all of Hegseth's posturing, they're probably playing it extra extra safe. That's also the reason why Trump is so angry that other countries aren't willing to take the risk in their place...

> ...also, Germany has 84,000,000 people, so definitely not half of Iran.

I think OP meant land mass not people with the country comparison.

They also write that Iran is "2/3 of Russia", when surface-wise it's not even one tenth, so I doubt that they meant that...

> The US can fly not only F-35 but even B-52.

Well, looking at the news, it turns out they can't because every time they've put something up it's ended in a horrific crash.

The US is militarily weak, and is utterly reliant on its NATO allies, who don't want to get involved in the current round of war crimes.

Are you delusional? The US militarily weak? Based on what? What in your view is an example of a strong military? And the US is reliant on NATO allies? HN has really become massively under America Derangement Syndrome. This is like a fever dream.

Well, what should people infer from Trump either pleading og trying to threaten for help every other day?

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