Also currently Iran is looking stronger not weaker tbh. The Americans have really fucked it all up.
When you say Iran is looking stronger I think you mean in some kind of relative expectation game in the media sense rather than a real hard power sense.. I would encourage you to look at the latter instead
Russia is shipping drones to Iran now.
Agreed, but
> but it's going to be a long-term gain in the form of a weakened Iran and a strengthened Europe
I don't think this is a sure thing at all.
The fact is that the US and Israel kicked a hornets nest that everyone is stuck in the room with, and everyone else in that room is understandably upset. And (to belabor the metaphor) the only ones who those hornets were eyeing had themselves been causing trouble for the past 80 years.
This is a silly claim; they're still sending missiles and drones all over the area, and the strait is functionally closed.
We spent twenty years trying to tame Afghanistan and it went right back to the Taliban within days of withdrawal from the area. Iran has a lot more capacity to bounce back than they did.
As for deterrent, Iran will probably stop being a significant threat to Israel. But cheap drones have changed the situation closer to Iran. The military power required to close the Strait and hobble the economies of the Gulf states is orders of magnitude smaller than the military power needed to stop it.
[0] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260326-iran-says-oil-exp...
What is a complete strategic failure though is EU's support for Israel's impunity that created this war, which will negatively effect all of the EU. There should have been severe sanctions and travel bans on all Israelis long time ago, to force their government to act better. Economic losses this shithole country caused to the EU, will not be offset by any benefits Israel's<->EU trade could create for a looooong time.
If you think this war is somehow negatively impacting the EU you're being very short sighted. Do you realize the level of impunity the IRGC has traditionally operated with in europe? Only the mass murderer of the Iranian civilians in January initiated a slow wake up call for europe. Still only a service level wake up call unfortunately
In any case, as far as covert IRGC actions in Europe go, individual countries have standard mechanisms to disrupt them, and they use those. There's no impunity. Not sure what's the problem.
Also, attacking Iran would not stop IRGC covert actions in Europe. It would likely add motivation to increase them. That's what engaging in war leads to.
Where there's actual impunity is when mossad/Israel operates in europe. There's even often cooperation on mossads kidnappings and assasinations from Europe's countries. And there's also a complete impunity. Mossad can kill me and my government would do absolutely nothing against Israel, I guarantee you. They did nothing when Israel hunted, terrorized, killed, or kidnapped other Europeans. Not just that, they justified it or ignored it completely.