U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

I've never gotten anyone who is educated in economy/finance to provide a reasonable answer to the questions:

"Is the world economy large enough to support a meaningful number of people regularly investing in it, arriving at an amount able to support a comfortable retirement, and then draw said money out on a regular basis? What percentage of the population can be supported thus? What is to be said to that percentage whose participation would exceed the capacity of existing financial markets?"

Perhaps there is issue with shareholder voting, because the funds largely handle that, but generally they are focused on long term growth and stability, and vote accordingly. I mean, then thing you are paying them to do is ensure you have a good retirement fund, if nothing else.

To stick some concrete numbers on this, combined the world's billionaires have about $15 trillion dollars worth of assets. Combined the world's retirement funds have about $60-$70 trillion dollars worth of assets.

What's driving the major disconnect is the generational wealth divide. Boomers have loads of wealth, housing, their pension funds, non-pension investments. Millenials, not so much. (Obviously, this is in part because wealth builds up during one's life, though the divide is stronger than merely that effect)

If you're a boomer, all this politics that promotes the stock market over the material economy is fucking great. Tech lays off another 16 billion people? Stonks go to the moon, and maybe you'll collect a nice fat severance package on your way out of your last job. If you're young though, it's a nightmare.

It's quite recent that the political balance has changed; Biden fumbled the 2024 election in no small part because of his "But the stock market is good, why are you mad?" stance that had been ol' reliable for the decades prior.

Be greedy when others are fearful, or something like that?

This all seems structural, as indicates that in the middle of a war even military stocks are down, which indicates deep rot or deep lack of confidence in at least the stock market.

So, yes, all of this was painfully obvious. But here we are.

I also don't think changing his behavior is within reach. His narcissism prevents him from growth and, like the scorpion in the tale, he can't help but sting.

Like all billionaires, he is an empty void that can never be filled. To borrow a phrase, he is a hungry ghost.

After his first million he needed more, then after a billion he saw that it was not enough, then after becoming president... he is, was, and always will be an empty hole of a person who can never feel satiated and who can consequently never feel genuine happiness.

He is not just a bad person, his is a bad soul.

Yes if only he had the heart/insight to make that 180 U-turn. It’d bring him some peace at last.

It was clear that Biden was mentally slipping. Even if you were a fan of his general politics, 4 additional years of mental decline while in office was a scary prospect.

And then Kamala Harris was given very little time to sell herself to the voters.

I'm wondering if Trump would have won had the Democrats presented someone more appealing earlier in the campaign.

"We" did not vote for him. Some of y'all did.

Maybe folks would be more careful of their money or the economy if there were more oral traditions along those lines --- one of my wife's aunts just passed away, a child of the Depression, her home was filled with home goods and food stuffs purchased when on sale beyond any reasonable expectation of her individual use, but all perfectly organized and ready to prevent future need.

One thing that worries me about the current state of things is scale and speed. Modern technology, markets, communication systems and supply chains make it possible for things to go catastrophically wrong very quickly for a massive number of people.

I think this is somewhat unique to the current era.

I still don’t buy into the belief that we’re absolutely witnessing a collapse. Studying history shows that things have been far worse (politically, socially geopolitically, etc) and we’ve come out the other side numerous times.

So I think “ups and downs” is probably the right way to look at this. I do worry about the impact of modern technology on this equation.

The Roman Empire took 500 years to decline.

The Soviet Union took 2 years.

The US broke centuries old alliances and upended the global order in a matter of months.

If there is a collapse of the American empire it won’t happen over centuries but in the span of a few tweets.

Rome is an extreme outlier. Its size peaked in 117. The beginning of the decline is up for debate but you could probably say it was somewhere in the 3rd century. The empire still managed to last until 1453. That decline is far, far longer than almost every other empire in history lasted from start to finish.

The British Empire reached its greatest territorial extent in 1920. The height of its power was around this time as well. It was the largest and most powerful empire in history at that point. By the 1950s, it was already a bit player in geopolitics, and by the 1980s it was effectively gone.

The USSR was the #2 (or maybe #1) most powerful empire in the world for a time. It felt like it evaporated practically overnight, although I'd say the decline took a couple of decades.

In any case, I don't expect to see the end of the American empire in my lifetime. I do think we've peaked. I don't say this because of the obvious crises, but because our leadership has become useless and stupid and the people fail to demand better. This is not just about Trump, although he's the most obvious example of it. Think about the upcoming midterm elections. Do we expect the new Congress to actually be useful? Regardless of which party wins power, I don't expect much. Think about 2028. What are the odds we get a good President? Just about zero, I'd say. There's a decent chance we won't get one who is so actively idiotic and malevolent, but good? No chance.

All of the major issues we face can be fixed, except that one, and that makes it all unfixable. We have a looming debt crisis that nobody in power will acknowledge in any real way. We're losing allies. Trade is disrupted. We have a large population of people who aren't legally allowed to be here and nobody in power wants to do anything about it (whether removing them or convincing them to leave or giving them a path to legitimacy, there's nothing being proposed but idiotic showboating). Our tech edge is rapidly fading.

So yes, I look at inmates running the asylum, I look at empty storefronts in my wealthy neighborhood, I look at the joke "high speed" trains running between our political capital and financial capital, I look at massive uncertainty in air travel because our government decided to stop paying critical personnel, and so much more, and I think that we're in decline.

I would argue it started with Reagan, with some ups and downs since.

- yes the Civil War could have literally been our Berlin Wall. And maybe we needed that. But the actions of the post war, for better or worse, did unite us enough to not have that happen.

- The gilded age should have also been the fall of the US. It arguably is the setup to the stock crash. But decades of collective opposition lead to a leader who could guide us out of thar crash with some of the most progressive policy we've seen.

The crimes of the 70's was manufactured a lot in part of the US government. And whole Vietnam was bad, the common American was never in danger over these issues past yet another recession. It wasn't quite the endgame we've seen other times.

Meanwhile, now: you can argue that this empire was falling for 45 years. With a few ups, but overall trending down. If the bronze age can fall in 100 years, I see no reason the hyper accelerated digital age can't fall in 30-40.

We can still be saved by yet another huge progressive push, but will we this time? It'll depend so much on the next 2 years.

I'm not so sure about that, in any case. We design the best computer chips but we don't make them. The best fabrication technology doesn't come from us. The best airliners don't come from American companies anymore. We're rapidly falling behind on energy. We're strong where the puck is, but not where it's going.

I salute you, nonetheless.

Your "domain experts" are often chronically incorrect sociopaths.

Let's not even get into the categorical and coordinated censorship campaign.

Shocking that people even support the covid response that happened. Much less make light through smarmy sarcastic shitposting.

A morbid part of me wonders if hisnl "advice" literally killed off enough of his voters to swing the election.

These people are killing tens of thousands of people to gain personal wealth and to cover their existing crimes. Maybe millions, if they aren't stopped.

It's been trending upward since 2025.

So I have no idea what metric you're using but no, this is objectively not the case.

If Oil goes the USD follow suits thanks to Petrodollar. This will happen until it's still easier to trade oil in dollars.

Had you bought $1000 of S&P on Jan 1st 2025 you'd have $1070

Had you bought $1000 of EUR on the same day and put it under the bed, you'd have $1100

$1000 in DAX in Euros would be $1250 today

Iran's power structure is unchanged. Oil is more expensive than in a long time. American alliances are fraying. Iran now exerts control over the Strait of Hormuz.

All this has done is to expose the limits of hard power, America's biggest asset.

Trump is the biggest environmentalist terrorist on the planet. Blow up a few schools and cause the world to double down on cutting out their oil usage.

It would be hilarious if people weren't dying.